In some places, Obama has been unlucky. Who knows if, with an Israeli prime minister other than Netanyahu or a more united and flexible Palestinian leadership, there might have been advances in the Middle East? In others, his overtures have had a perverse effect. In abolishing the “axis of evil” and appealing direct to Iranians, Obama helped precipitate the turmoil that followed Iran’s elections. He had made demonising the US more difficult.
Something similar would apply elsewhere in the region; in North Korea, even in Russia. In hostile territory, Obama has split opinion, between those who still see him as cleverer, and so more dangerous, than his predecessors, and those who are tempted to engage. But none of this negates the evidence of a single mind at work, contemplating a world where the US will be one among several major players.
Choosing arms talks as the forum for “pressing the reset button” with Russia allowed Moscow to negotiate on familiar, and equal, territory. With a degree of trust established, wider cooperation may follow; we shall see when the agreement is signed in Prague this week. And there is a wariness with China, but one that sees Beijing’s weakness as well as its strength. It is not cowardice, but pragmatism, that led Obama to delay publication of the currency report until after this month’s nuclear summit. Why trigger conflict, if you have the power to fend it off?
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