Will U.S./Israeli tensions affect the midterms?

Obama won 78 percent of Jews in 2008, more than John Kerry before him. In fact, despite a string of stories hinting otherwise, Obama was never really at risk of losing Jews in 2008. No Republican has won Jews since 1920 (and that was due to a third-party candidate). Only blacks are a more loyal bloc of the Democratic Party.

“The segment of the American Jewish community that votes most on Israel and is really hawkish has long voted Republican,” said Kenneth Wald, a University of Florida political scientist who specializes in the Jewish vote.

Few American Jews actually vote on the Israeli issue. The economy is the top issue for 55 percent of Jews today. Only 10 percent of American Jews said Israel, according to the Gerstein-Agne poll, ranking Israel the sixth most important issue along with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan…

So Obama attempts to thread the needle: pressure Israel for diplomatic gain without risking significant domestic political loss. Obama is gambling that the ends might justify the means. But he is also unlikely to dramatically escalate those means and risk too much political cost. After all, like so many before him, the ends will likely escape this president as well.