Many remember the Reform Party of the 1990s, which formed around the candidacy of Ross Perot. I sure do, because it eliminated any chance that President George H.W. Bush and I would prevail over Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992. What started as a grass-roots phenomenon ended with 19 percent support at the ballot box — and a majority of those voters would probably have gone Republican in a two-party race. Speaking on behalf of the Bush-Quayle campaign, to this day we firmly believe that Perot cost the Republican Party the White House. The 1992 election was the best showing for the movement Perot started, and whatever national influence it retained kept working to the benefit of Democrats.
According to recent polling, a similar scenario could unfold this year: Voters would slightly favor a Republican over a Democrat in a two-person congressional race in November, but the presence of a tea party candidate would split the vote on the right and hand victory to the Democratic candidate.
If real influence is the goal of the tea party movement, there’s a much better example for its mostly Republican-leaning members to bear in mind, this year and beyond. In the late 1970s, the tax revolt movement that began in California quickly gained a national following and could easily have become a third party for the 1980 elections. But instead of fielding its own candidates, the movement exerted enormous influence on races across the country. In the end, rather than drawing votes away from the winning coalition, it helped elect Ronald Reagan and a Congress that promptly brought down federal tax rates for all Americans.
This might not have happened if the Republican Party hadn’t shown the good sense to embrace the tax revolt, which resembled today’s tea party movement.
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