Skeptics wonder: Are China's numbers masking a recession?

While official data point to a robust recovery, Chinese statistics may have masked a significant economic contraction at the height of the global financial crisis, according to analyses by Thomas G. Rawski, an economics professor at the University of Pittsburgh, and China specialist Gordon Chang.

“I agree with the trajectory and the timing of the recovery,” Mr. Rawski said, “but the extent of the Chinese slowdown is far larger than suggested” by the official data.

Although China’s economic figures do not reveal a definitive contraction during the global downturn, Mr. Rawski thinks China experienced an outright recession, when its gross domestic product (GDP) declined during one or more quarters.

“China is experiencing a classic V-shaped recovery,” Mr. Rawski said. He thinks the downward portion of the “V” dipped into negative territory, probably during the first half of 2009.