For a GOP takeover, incumbent Democrats also would have to lose in Colorado, where appointed Sen. Michael Bennet hasn’t run statewide and faces a primary; Nevada, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is unpopular but has a hefty bank account; Arkansas, where Sen. Blanche Lincoln suffers from representing a GOP-leaning state; Pennsylvania, where party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter is extraordinarily vulnerable, and Illinois, where a dogfight is certain for President Obama’s old seat.
Republicans would have to hold on to all the Senate seats they have now, hardly a sure thing. And the GOP also would have to beat incumbents in New York, where no Republican has emerged to challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and Connecticut, where Democrat Richard Blumenthal is comfortably leading all GOP contenders in polls.
If all that somehow happens, the tipping point could be either in Indiana or in California.
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