Four obstacles to a GOP takeover

1. The Tea Party movement. Republican candidates are facing primary challenges from Tea Party-backed candidates in states all over the country. This dynamic is pitting grassroots conservatives against “the Washington establishment.” It is also going to drain the checkbooks of many Republican candidates.

2. Cash shortage. The national party has far less cash on hand than Democrats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has $16.7 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s $2.67 million, for example. If Republicans cannot pick up the fundraising pace, their ability to be competitive in all the close races will be limited.

3. Obama: The president is a likable figure, despite his falling job approval rating. He could quickly refocus on issues other than health care — namely job creation and financial regulation. His time with House Republicans Friday was a reminder of his political and intellectual prowess. The White House even sent out video of the forum to reporters. “
I don’t think the Republicans expected it,” a senior Democratic House leadership aide said. “If I was a Republican I’d admit that was a failure.”

4. The obstructionist label. If Republicans stand united against Obama’s next budget — against a jobs bill, health care and other measures — the White House and congressional Democrats will blame them for hindering progress as citizens struggle with joblessness and crisis. The obstructionist charge has “been a challenge for us over the last year,” a senior GOP aide said.