Many economists agree and warn against reading too much into a jump in GDP figures for the last three months of 2009. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said that even if there were no change in final sales of goods, the GDP figures would show a 4 percent increase simply because businesses that were emptying their warehouses a year ago are now buying enough goods to keep stockpiles steady.
“A lot of it is the arithmetic of inventories,” said Yardeni, who is expecting a 6.5 percent jump in the GDP number. “Even if there is a very strong number for the fourth quarter, if it’s [all because of] inventories, it will raise real questions about the strength of the economy in 2010.”
Nucor is a good example. Reeling from the downturn last year, the Charlotte-based steelmaker practically stopped buying pig iron, which it uses as raw material. Instead it used up much of the pig iron it had stockpiled for normal times and suddenly didn’t need. For the last quarter of 2008 and the first three quarters of 2009, Nucor bought infrequently.
Now, said the company’s chief executive, Daniel R. DiMicco, “we’ve worked them down to the absolute minimums necessary to meet the demand of market.” So the company has gone back to buying more regularly. But steel demand remains weak, and Nucor’s mills are running at a little over 60 percent of capacity.
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