Temperature check: GOP on pace to pick up 28 seats in November

Given that we expect more Democratic retirements in the next few months and anticipate that more Democratic-held districts will increase in vulnerability between now and the fall, we are raising our target for GOP gains to 24 to 28 seats, with higher Republican gains possible. Of course, changes in the national mood between now and November could also benefit Democrats.

In addition, we can no longer dismiss the possibility of a Republican wave so large that Democrats could lose their House majority.