When does an uprising become a revolution?

Once a regime has lost the support of its police and armed forces, revolution is almost inevitable. Marcello Caetano, the successor of the Antonio Salazar, Portugal’s long-time dictator, attempted to prolong his fascist rule and grip on overseas colonies but when the monocled head of the Army, General Antonio de Spinola, wrote a book suggesting that the policy was untenable, the regime’s military underpinning was shattered. In 1974 revolution swept the country and the police did nothing to halt it.

According to reports some of Iran’s police have also refused to fire on demonstrators. For the moment, however, President Ahmadinejad appears secure, for he has the zealous support of the basij militias and the Revolutionary Guard. He has also made no attempt to buy off the protesters with concessions that might embolden their demands.

Nervous Iranians attempting to quell the opposition cannot conclude, however, that their hard line will hold. President Mugabe also thought that his “veterans” and bully boys could intimidate the opposition in Zimbabwe but, when the soldiers showed the restlessness of those who had no money and no food, he was forced to make enough concessions to bring Morgan Tsvangirai into government. For the moment, he has survived, but the struggle in Zimbabwe is not over.