Obama's down -- but will still probably be reelected

Last year, many voters backed Mr Obama believing they were sending to the White House a left-of-centre pragmatist who would transform Washington by bridging the partisan divide. Instead, many have been unnerved – even frightened – by Mr Obama’s belief that gargantuan short-term spending is the long-term answer to America’s economic woes…

Yet, as he looks toward 2012 and his re-election bid, Mr Obama has much to console him. Republicans remain factionalised and leaderless. After his protracted review of Afghan strategy, a process beset by leaks, he has finally ordered a surge of 30,000 extra US troops. In two years, some form of victory may be in sight. By sheer dint of time, jobs will have been returning. Americans will likely have warmed to his health reforms. He will argue that his policies averted a second Great Depression. That is a lot to run on.