The impenetrability of these hyper-technical bills is a very important factor for this analysis. It means that voters must weigh their perceived costs and benefits under conditions of severe uncertainty. This point is going to affect every calculation they make…
The final factor is risk aversion. Recent polling has shown that most people are satisfied with the health care system. Rasmussen recently found that 49% rate it as “good or excellent” while just 27% rate it as “poor.” Gallup’s numbers are not as positive, but still suggest that most Americans are generally all right with the system as it is…
Importantly, risk aversion can vary according to the stakes. If somebody has a 50/50 shot at winning $1 million or can take $500,000 for certain, what will he do? A risk neutral person would be indifferent. But most people’s risk aversion will make them eager to take the sure thing. People are extremely risk averse when it comes to health care precisely because the stakes are so high. This might make them especially squeamish about the possibility that the bills will have negative side effects.
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