Ten new Iranian enrichment plants? Hey, no biggie

There is certainly more time. This is not the endgame. Western diplomats insist they are still holding steady and waiting for Iran to honor a pledge it made in Geneva on Oct. 1 to ship most of its enriched uranium out of the country…

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Where does this leave us? Cuts in cooperation are the steps that would surely escalate the Iranian nuclear crisis. Iran is already imposing a minimum level of safeguards, the measures that allow the IAEA to track how much uranium is being enriched and to place cameras in plants and have inspectors visit. If these safeguards were diminished, Iran might be able to refine its uranium up to weapons grade—beyond the level now done for reactor fuel—without the international community knowing about it. Iran has been careful throughout the crisis, which began in 2002, when the first secret plants were discovered, not to walk away from safeguards. These measures are a legal obligation under the NPT, of which the Islamic Republic is a member.

North Korea withdrew from the NPT and kicked out IAEA inspectors in 2002-03, setting the stage for the escalation in that crisis. Iran has been careful to stay away from such a step. Even as he warned about that Iran would react strongly to the IAEA resolution, Iranian ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh made it clear last Friday that Iran would honor its safeguards agreement, even for the previously hidden enrichment site near the holy city of Qom.

This makes Iran’s announcement about building 10 new enrichment sites only a coup de theatre at this point.

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