7. The Economy Missing from Kilgore’s analysis entirely is, strangely, what is likely to be the most important factor in the 2010 elections: the economy. In 1994, the economy was sluggish, but had been recovering for four years, and it still proved to be a drag on Democrats. I don’t think anyone really has a clue what the public’s perception of the economy will be in 2010. Reading Realclearmarkets day-to-day, you’re just as likely to find someone predicting Morning In America II as you are someone predicting gloom-and-doom.

So let’s say this: If it is apparent to the average American by the summer of 2010 that we are in the midst of a robust recovery, then I think that the Democrats’ losses will be very limited. We could even see minor gains. But if we’re seeing double digit unemployment numbers that are only beginning to crest or come down (or worse still, are still going up), the Democrats are going to have an absolute debacle on their hands. Every Democrat in a red district that voted for the stimulus package, which is almost all of them, will have to face charges that they voted for a trillion dollars in spending with nothing to show for it. Many will also have to defend votes on cap-and-trade, a health care proposal that isn’t particularly popular in red states, and other votes yet to be determined (immigration reform?).

If that’s the playing field on which the 2010 elections are fought, then 2010 won’t look like 1994. It will look worse.