Polanski will never return to the U.S.

Here’s why that return will likely never happen: For openers, the Swiss Justice Ministry must first examine the U.S request for transfer and approve it. The approval process could take months. Given the European uproar over Polanski’s arrest, it seems highly likely they may simply deny the transfer. Swiss officials have put themselves in the rather unenviable position of angering the U.S. if they do not proceed or angering the European community if they do. The answer may well come down to who exerts the most pressure and it is not clear that the U.S. has that great a desire to become embroiled in this mess. One can imagine that Obama and Hillary may be a little more preoccupied with Iran nuclear programs and health-care reform rather than a 30-year old case that is likely to be dismissed if Polanski sets foot on U.S soil.

There are more scenarios that could result in Polanski never being returned to the U.S. One is that Polanski will be granted bail. Extradition proceedings can often take months and in some instances even a year or more…

Another possibility is that Polanski’s attorneys in the U.S. can now ask the L.A. Superior Court judge to dismiss the case. Prior to the arrest, his U.S. lawyers requested the charges be dismissed based upon prior prosecutorial misconduct. Judge Espinoza stated that it was apparent that serious misconduct had occurred but refused to dismiss the case because Polanski had to be in custody to have the hearing for dismissal.