“Core” al-Qaida is now reduced to a senior leadership of six to eight men, including Bin Laden and his Egyptian deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, according to most informed estimates. Several other Egyptians, a Libyan and a Mauritanian occupy the other top positions. In all, there are perhaps 200 operatives who count.

The most significant recent development is evidence that al-Qaida’s alliance with the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan is fraying, boosting the prospect of acquiring intelligence that will lead to Bin Laden’s capture or death. Despite an intensive US-led manhunt, there has not been a credible lead on the Saudi-born al-Qaida leader in years. Bin Laden’s nickname among some CIA hunters is “Elvis” because there have been so many false sightings of him.

“Al-Qaida has become a liability for the Taliban,” said Mustafa Alani, a terrorism expert at the Gulf research centre in Dubai who visited Waziristan in July. “There is a good possibility that the Pakistanis or the Americans will be able to get good intelligence on the ground and kill Bin Laden.”…

Popular sympathy, which drained away because of sectarian killings in Iraq, has dwindled further this year. In Saudi Arabia, according to a recent intelligence report, 60-70% of information about al-Qaida suspects now comes from relatives, friends and neighbours, not from security agencies or surveillance.

Another weakness is in the so-called “war of ideas”. This week imprisoned leaders of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group began publishing a “revision” of their previous understanding of jihad.