The nearby chart shows this Grand Canyon between spending and revenue, including CBO’s long-term predictions. While these are obviously very coarse estimates, there’s also a projection of a $65 billion deficit in the 10th year—and “deficit neutrality in the 10th year is . . . the best proxy for what will happen in the second decade.”

That’s not our outlook. That’s what White House budget director Peter Orszag told the House Budget Committee in June. He added that “If you’re not falling off a cliff at the end of your projection window, that is your best assurance that the long-term trajectory is also stable.” The House bill falls off a cliff.

And the CBO score almost surely understates this deficit chasm because CBO uses static revenue analysis—assuming that higher taxes won’t change behavior. But long experience shows that higher rates rarely yield the revenues that they project.

As for the spending, when has a new entitlement ever come in under budget?