For example, he discovered that the fading of attention for viral videos can be described with the mathematics used to model aftershocks in earthquakes, so-called “Epidemic Type Aftershock” models. “I find it fascinating that a social system ostensibly works according to particular rules, just like a physical system, and therefore becomes mathematically comprehensible,” says Crane describing his interest in “sociophysics”…

Crane’s results are especially interesting for marketing purposes. His model could be used, for example, to monitor online book sales in real time. By constantly comparing data, marketing experts could recognize which book has the makings of a blockbuster early on based on the sales graph. The critical point, the so-called “tipping point”, where a viral effect begins and a book’s potential actually leads to a blockbuster, could therefore be consciously provoked with the necessary marketing measures.