Poll: Obama leads narrowly in four key red states, tied in another

This week’s poll shows a very stable race whose underlying dynamic strongly favors the Democratic presidential candidate. Obama holds a narrow advantage ranging from two to five percentage points in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Missouri, and he is tied with McCain in North Carolina. Keep in mind that George W. Bush won all five of these states in 2004.

The only notable change this week was in Ohio, where Obama is now on top, 49 percent to 47 percent, overcoming a one-point deficit in each of the previous two weeks and an even larger lead for McCain in the Buckeye State in the weeks prior to that. The race for Ohio’s 20 Electoral College votes is now well within the margin of sampling error, but trending toward the Democrat.