Palin’s awful performance these past few weeks has ruined those early inroads with middle-of-the-road voters and eaten into her support on the right. Instead of looming over the 2012 race as a threat to Romney, she now seems like a more natural rival to Mike Huckabee, who enjoys a committed following on the right but faces a clear ceiling because he’s been defined as a niche candidate. Palin remains a credible candidate for 2012 – anyone with her name recognition would be – but at this point, she would be a second-tier candidate.