It’s hard to see how McCain escapes this trap. If Iraq gets worse, the domestic desire to leave will grow. If Iraq improves, the domestic desire to leave will grow. Either way, McCain’s posture – stay in until the job is done and preferably, in smaller numbers, for ever – is too close to Bush’s to avoid electoral danger. It is a cruel paradox: the more he is proved right about the immediate past, the less he seems suited to run the immediate future.