The Only Toll In the Strait of Hormuz Is Being Paid By the Iranian Regime

Duane Patterson 12:30 PM | July 13, 2026
AP Photo/Emrah Gurel

A few days ago, Congressman Ro Khanna channeled his inner Greta Thunberg and pulled a stunt just outside Khirbet Zanuta in Israel's West Bank. He was ostensibly there on a fact-finding mission to see how bad off the Palestinians are, and allegedly was detained by armed Israeli settlers. Eventually, Israeli police defused the situation and Khanna went on his way, but loaded with plenty of fresh pro-Palestinian street cred to cover him with the antisemitic wing of the Democratic Party. 

Just hours after dropping his endorsement of former Maine senatorial candidate Graham Platner last week, the would-be presidential candidate in 2028 needed to change the narrative. The optics of Khanna not just endorsing, but actively campaigning and fundraising for an openly antisemitic, Nazi tattoo-wearing, serial sexual abuser should have been too much. But it wasn't. It wasn't until Platner faced credible charges of actual rape five years ago that caused Khanna to slither away. He dropped all ties with Platner, but that comes with a cost with the fever swamp on the left. He needed to change the narrative, but change it in a way that re-endears him with the Democratic Socialists of America currently mounting a hostile takeover of the Democratic Party. How? By getting on the D.S.A's right side of the one issue that underpins the current crop of candidates and supporters - cutting off Israel. So why not go to a contested piece of real estate and give voice to the Palestinians, hoping for a conflict with Israelis in the process? 

Time will tell if Khanna's stunt helps or hurts him in his expected run for the White House. His polling amongst other potential contenders is in low single digits, so he may be gambling that any exposure is good exposure. But on the flip side, he is developing a reputation even amongst the very base he needs of being somewhat reptilian. He's just not very trustworthy when you need him most, so it remains unclear whether this weekend will benefit him with anyone. 

In the case of the third-tier rump regime running the Islamic Republic of Iran, they, too, pulled a stunt over the last week or so, testing the boundaries of which they believed President Trump was no longer willing to cross, and the result of that stunt have cost them dearly. 

Three different ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between June 30th and July 1st were struck by Iranian drones. It briefly brought traffic, which had been as high as 50-70 crossings a day, to a standstill. What brought on the attacks? The global marketplace. 

The regime thought they could relax a bit knowing they were very close to being flush with cash once again. Around 50 million barrels of oil left Iranian ports and headed for their usual customers in India, Japan, and China. Both countries - the U.S. and Iran - essentially took the July 4th holiday off, albeit for very different reasons. We celebrated America's 250th, while the Iranians buried their long-dead Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after a long procession...in a Chevrolet truck. The Iranians spun up their 'death to America', 'death to the Jews', 'death to the West' rhetoric once again, promising to avenge all the dead regime leaders since the 47-year old war finally came to Iran in late February. But after that hiatus, things got serious again very quickly.

The first signal that the Memorandum of Understanding was now a dead letter was when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rescinded the waiver for Iran to export oil after international sanctions had been put in place. 

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Since Donald Trump had flown to Ankara for the NATO summit, inside a country literally sharing a border with Iran, it was assumed by most that this would be the extent of the pushback for the Iranian attacks in the Strait for now. But that's not how this President rolls. 

Two days' worth of strikes, and the President declared the ceasefire was over with. But in classic Trump terms, he left the Iranians scratching their heads. 

So if you're in Iran trying to predict what President Trump and the military will do next, you really have no idea. We weren't even to the weekend yet, and the deal now on the table seemed to be: 

  • Iran no longer has any access to cash in the short term.
  •  Whatever revenue eventually comes from ships that made it out of the Strait will go into a U.S.-controlled escrow account, and the proceeds of which will help rebuild infrastructure damage in GCC countries caused by Iranian strikes.
  • The U.S. will strike at will, or won't. There is zero trust, so any future talks will have to be backed up by immediate performance.
  • And we retain the right and willingness to engage in any action we see fit until such time as Iran changes behavior.
  • The Israelis will remain in Southern Lebanon removing Hezbollah root and branch with the cooperation and assistance of the Lebanese government until such a time as the Lebanese Army can hold the gains made by the Israeli Defense Forces.
  • And joining in the punitive strikes coming Iran's way will be the militaries of several Gulf Arab countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, the U.A.E., and others.  

Remember me mentioning those 25-30 tankers Iran sent to all their best customers? They're all stalled in foreign harbors full of oil with no one willing to let them dock and offload it, much less pay Iran for it. 

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Iranian oil has become too toxic even for the CCP. Japan is welcoming tankers inbound from the U.S. constantly, and Iranian ships have literally nowhere to go. That's why Iran felt desperate enough to begin the doom loop of attacking ships in the Strait again. They realized very quickly that Donald Trump had gotten the better of them in the M.O.U., and they had to change the equation. What they failed to calculate was how done President Trump was with their game. 

The kinetic strikes against Iran continued with increasing frequency and intensity. At one point, however, Iran reported fresh strikes along both the Southern Coast around the Strait of Hormuz and further west as well. The difference between this strike and previous attacks was that CENTCOM responded by saying it wasn't us this time that was hitting them. 

If it wasn't us making things go boom last Thursday night, and to be fair, the strikes were earlier in the evening than what had become usual for our Midnight-2 AM runs, it had to be the Israelis, right? Nope. 

Another big development in the war with Iran. Gulf Arab states actively striking another Muslim country, albeit a Persian Shia country, and fighting on the same side as both the United States and Israel. It's extraordinary, and Senator Tom Cotton was not overlooking it.

And it's not just planes dropping off bombs. Some of our Arab allies, including Kuwait, have missile launchers now, and they're using them. 

Secretary Bessent, the economic killer that he is, upped the ante and made sanctions personal. 

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Now you would think all this activity and instability in the region would cause the markets to tumble and oil prices to skyrocket once again. The markets actually went up on Friday before dipping lower at Monday's open, and oil hovered in the mid-70s going into Monday morning. It's up a bit from the high-60's the week before, but the markets seem to be baking in this renewed action on Iran, knowing that Iran is going to have to be beaten around the turban again for a while. 

One of the reasons why the markets are sort of shrugging this last week off? Ships are still moving. 

20 since all the fireworks began alone, and another dozen or so moved last night as I was writing this column with their transponders turned off. No one is giving it the official name, but it appears that Project Freedom is well underway once more. 

As I've laid out in previous columns, for the markets to hit price equilibrium, traffic through Hormuz doesn't have to return to the 100+/day level, because so much of that oil is already flowing west through pipelines and avoiding the Strait entirely. And over the weekend, President Trump announced another one on the horizon. 

By Friday, the parts of the regime that had been negotiating with Trump sent the expected "No mas, no mas" call. They sounded like John Belushi in the Blues Brothers facing Carrie Fisher holding the gun. The excuses were non-stop. 'It was an accident, ' they claimed. 'We didn't mean to hit the boats.' (Even though they've hit another one or two since.) 'It was miscommunication.' They admitted their command and control isn't all that and a bag of chips. 'Those people out there do not represent our intent.' 

The President listened to them, and then he forced their hand. 

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He demanded the regime do something it simply cannot do - publicly bend the knee. And if they did not bend the knee by Saturday night, they would have a very unenjoyable future. How did Iran respond? By launching missiles at Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, as well as harassing more ships in the Strait.  

And in a week of interesting developments, on that latter front, Iran harassing the Strait, the U.S. Navy began deploying these bad boys to help blow up bad guys. 

Iran has launched a few missiles at U.S. bases in the region, and has tried to claim anything from killing three to destroying the command of the 5th Fleet. None of it is true, of course. The air defenses all over the region seem to be more than holding their own against decreasing numbers of available Iranian missiles, and lasers are continuing to be deployed for use against aerial drones. And remember, there remains little or no industrial base in Iran to build more missile bodies or launchers to replace the few they can dig out of the rubble underground. And despite Iran's rhetoric, they're getting clobbered pretty consistently again. 

By Sunday, all pretense for future talks went out the window as CENTCOM announced a full day of withering strikes all over Iran. In addition to new allies joining the fight and new technology deployed in the water, now you're seeing the beginning of a shift in targeting. Instead of going after coastal weapons and bases that can menace the Strait and neighboring countries, infrastructure is once again being targeted. 

Why is this airport so important? This is in Khuzestan Province, the only airport that moves oil field personnel, both civilian and military, in and out of the two largest oil fields in Iran. Without the ability to get people in and out, especially IRGC types, it leaves the entire area vulnerable should someone come along with the ability to commandeer the oil fields and/or the head of the pipeline feeding Kharg Island. 

At that airport, allegedly, was a high-value target. 

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Who did we get? All signs, though still unconfirmed, point to this guy. 

And who needs water when you're in a desert, or if you have to force something into the ground to displace the oil up to the pipeline?  

Add that to the land route bridge to China and Russia that got taken out last week, and Iran's problems have intensified dramatically. 

What's to come over the next few weeks is, of course, unknowable. Iran acts as though they realize the deal they believed would simultaneously fleece the United States out of cash and allow the regime to survive is actually a killer for them.

The regional deal they thought they could strike with their Gulf neighbors to kick the Americans out and share control of the Strait seemed to vanish with Iranian missile attacks into Jordan, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar.  

The only countries willing to buy oil from Iran in recent history have now sidelined them for safer, saner suppliers. 

And the only other trickle of oil leaving Iran by train and truck through the mountains into Turkmenistan and eventually China got severed in one strike. 

Iran is isolated and out of options. There are roughly 340 power plants, large and small, that make up Iran's central grid. The President could take out one. And then another. And another. He could turn them off like a person flips off breakers on their electrical panel at home until you get to a breaking point and something very important turns off. 

There are 10 gasoline refineries in Iran. Even maxxed out, they cannot service the fuel needs of Iran. There's no gas coming in. And the President could take one refinery out, and then another one a few days later. Again, it's not long before everyone is walking and there's no power, no air conditioning, no refrigeration, and no food. 

Without the Khuzestan airport, the oil fields are literally a sitting duck. It wouldn't take a very large presence to go ahead and take the oil. 

And for the average Iranian, economic conditions are still deteriorating. You may feel like you have to shout 'Death to America' because there are still IRGC soldiers with guns on roofs pointed down at you if you don't, but when you're hungry and out of work, your heart isn't really in it. 

With or without the M.O.U. or further peace talks, Trump holds all the cards. 

He should continue the escort service through the Strait, enable the Gulf states to exact their revenge, allow Israel to continue doing the Lord's work in Lebanon, and keep squeezing Iran's source of revenue, augmented by systematically increasing the level of destruction on infrastructure until the regime pops. The markets are cooperating, and the Democratic Party is certainly doing their share on keeping Republicans in the game for the midterms in November by nominating antisemitic communists who are economic illiterates.  

The regime still envisions a world where they'll charge a toll for ships to traverse the Strait. To their credit, their public bravado has been the only facet of the regime that's been unfailingly consistent going back to 1979. But thanks to Donald J. Trump, every other aspect of the regime, without exception, is now circling the drain and paying dearly for that bravado. 

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DONALD TRUMP IRAN ISRAEL AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI

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