I watched every minute of the debate. The video package I had available for Wednesday morning's Hugh Hewitt Show and my Duane's World podcast included over 50 video clips. My original conclusion was that nobody won the debate. Trump wasn't at his best, Kamala Harris was an A.I. cyborg reciting memorized answers to issue sets, not specific questions. And David Muir and Linsey Davis, Kamala's sorority sister, set a standard for bias in a debate moderator that will never be equaled. I'm not sure it's physically possible to be more partisan and one-sided than what we saw Tuesday night in Philadelphia.

Donald Trump was effective at redirecting the conversation repeatedly throughout the debate on the border crisis, and all of the manifest problems we've seen over the last four years, whether it be on jobs, crime, drugs, national security concerns, education, or strains on the health care system. But there were at least a dozen opportunities for the former President to put this race away for good. He had multiple chances to do what Ronald Reagan did to Walter Mondale in 1984 - use a meme from his opponent he knew was coming and turn it around, erasing any doubt as to who is going to win the election. Trump didn't do that. I'll give you just two examples of a rhetorical checkmate Trump left on the board. 

Kamala Harris launched into her 'Trump is the worst ever' routine at one point, making the case that the events of January 6th constituted the biggest threat to democracy since the Civil War. On 9/10, she said that. In real time, my eyes bugged out. I was ready to pounce. I certainly expected Donald Trump to pounce. At least, he could do a little seizing. He could very easily have said, "Tomorrow, I will be in New York at Ground Zero, and at Shanksville, Pennsylvania, to remember the nearly 3,000 Americans that lost their lives in a terror attack on U.S. soil that attempted to decapitate the government. The plane that crashed into the fields of Shanksville was inbound to Washington, D.C. Its primary target was the White House. Its secondary target was the U.S. Capitol. Thanks to the first combatants in the War on Terror, American patriots on board bull rushed the cockpit and ended that threat, even if it meant sacrificing their own lives." And you're telling the American people that J6 was worse? Really?

Another layup was when Harris claimed that there are no U.S. troops currently serving in a combat zone. We have troops at al-Assad in Iraq that constantly comes under attack. We just lost 7 servicemembers to an ISIS attack on August 31st. U.S. troops are stationed in a combat zone in Syria. There are hot spots all around the world where we have troops deployed. This was an easy way for Trump to show Harris as clueless, unmoored from reality, and recklessly stupid on the commander-in-chief question.   

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch ally of the former President and surrogate in the Spin Room Tuesday night, thought Trump's performance was disastrous. 'Damage control' was the phrase thrown around conservative media circles for the first 24 hours afterwards. But a funny thing happened. For a debate that Donald Trump seemingly lost, there seems to be movement in his direction since the debate. 

David Chalian, one of CNN's political analysts, brought up comparable polling from before and after the debate on the subject of the economy. The specific question is 'who would be better on the economy.' Trump enjoyed a comfortable lead going into the debate, and afterwards, increased his lead on the issue. 



Nate Silver, who is one of the nation's preeminent pollsters, and who is a Democrat openly supporting Kamala Harris, has been under withering, relentless attacks from the far left because his forecasting has increasingly shown Donald Trump with at least a 60-40 or better chance of winning the Electoral College in November. Here's his first forecast, post-debate.

#Latest @NateSilver538 Forecast (9/10)

🟥 Trump: 61.3%
🟦 Harris: 38.4%

Electoral Votes
🟥 Trump: 278 🏆
🟦 Harris: 260
——
Swing States: chance of winning

Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 63-37%
Michigan - 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 77-23%
North… pic.twitter.com/h5Q4I1PXhp

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 10, 2024

Of course, swing state polls coming out over the course of the next week or two will reveal whether or not either candidate truly received a bump out of the debate or not, but here's a scenario as to why Kamala Harris not only did not win the debate, but possibly lost the election after Tuesday night. 

Of all the issue sets that American voters claim is the most important to them, the top three, certainly three out of the top five, include what Hugh Hewitt has referred to as the three I's - Inflation, Immigration, and Israel. Inflation, and the economic condition Americans currently face, is by far and away the most important issue according to poll respondents. Immigration has taken up residence in the number two spot, and the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran proxy war is right up there as the focal point for foreign policy concerns. All three subjects were broached in the debate, and Kamala Harris whiffed on all three. Even Jake Tapper on CNN Wednesday afternoon noted that on all of the big three issues, Harris didn't offer anything of substance. 

 

Why does this matter? Since Kamala Harris took up the mantle for the Democrats as their nominee, she has given exactly one policy speech to promote price controls and housing subsidies. She has subsequently augmented that through a campaign press release that rent controls would be thrown into the mix. She offered nothing of value to uncommitted swing state voters in her convention acceptance speech, and her one interview with CNN's Dana Bash was substance-free as well. 

Trump voters are locked in. They're not moving. They're not fading. Major Garrett of CBS found that out visiting a restaurant this week in Michigan. 

Major Garrett: "How will you feel if Trump doesn't win?"

Michigan voter: "Petrified." pic.twitter.com/cV3szvVpzR

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 11, 2024

Major Garrett: "I talked to 20 voters. Not one of them was undecided... Support for President Trump is real and resilient. I encountered that everywhere I went." pic.twitter.com/0dFVgNNstd

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 11, 2024

She voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 — but is voting for President Trump now pic.twitter.com/xK3cvZlxqf

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 11, 2024

Harris voters, which really are represented by an amalgam of Not Trump voters (Democrats and Never Trump Republicans), are not moving. So for the vast majority of the electorate, the race is static and the debate didn't move the needle one bit. 

The real question is the undecided voters in swing states. Nobody truly knows how many there are, but they're going to decide this thing. What did they think? They're like a jury. They've been sitting in the box listening to the evidence presented them thus far. They've heard Donald Trump's case, multiple times, in fact. Trump has held dozens of televised rallies. He's appeared on dozens of radio and television programs. He's granted dozens of interviews on podcasts. His economic vision for the country is well-known. He was president for four years. His case has been presented to uncommitted swing voters. What they were interested in seeing was what Kamala Harris will do as president. Now that the debate is in the rearview mirror, they're still wondering. 

After being asked what she says to people who believe they were better off four years ago under Trump, Kamala offered a precisely-timed two-minute diatribe that included the word 'plan' 5 times. She tossed in random dollar amounts - $6,000, $50,000, $5 trillion, $4,000. She said 'plan' a bunch, included figures to make it sound economic-y, and rested her case. The voters that are going to decide the election in a couple months all looked at each other and realized she's not going to present anything concrete about what she's going to do, and so we're going for Trump because economically speaking, he was pretty good. Ed wrote about the Reuters focus group of undecided voters who after the debate saw a majority breaking for Trump.

Reuters interviewed 10 people who were still unsure how they were going to vote in the Nov. 5 election before they watched the debate. Six said afterward they would now either vote for Trump or were leaning toward backing him. Three said they would now back Harris and one was still unsure how he would vote.

CNN's focus group after the debate had similar comments from an undecided voter.

After tonight's Presidential debate, CNN held a focus group with undecided voters.

CNN: "What did you see that brought you to a conclusion?"

UNDECIDED VOTER: "When facts come to facts, my life was better when Trump was in office."

Americans can see through the 3 vs 1 charade pic.twitter.com/lW5Nnhn3mA

— Neanderthal Jack 🤍 (@RealHesiod) September 11, 2024

Fox News had their focus group partitioned by political affiliation - red for Republican, blue for Democrat, yellow for independents, the swing voters here. They all had the dials in their hands to respond when they heard something they liked. When Trump talked about the three I's, look at what happens to the yellow line. 

🚨The dust settles and Dems' gaslighting sputters w another example of Independents in focus group lining up w Trump during debate on immigration, economy, fracking, abortion https://t.co/saKo5UsHJ5

— Tammy Bruce (@HeyTammyBruce) September 11, 2024

Even CBS' focus group in Pennsylvania didn't hear anything satisfactory out of Harris, and heard Trump reinforce what they remembered for the most part as a good economy four years ago. 

Kamala Camp in panic mode as the debate focus groups of undecideds and independents broke for Trump across all networks! The American People are too smart to believe VP Harris or ABC's moderators blatant lies! pic.twitter.com/EkUd63DWmD

— Tex-Mex Trumpian (@TexicanTrumpian) September 11, 2024

Will there be a second presidential debate? It all depends on the polling next week. If Trump collapses in the polls, he's going to want to do anything debate, and Harris will probably not go anywhere near harm's way. If Trump gets a bump, Harris is probably going to try to dare him into another debate with a friendly network with friendly moderators that aren't quite as ham-handed as Muir and Davis were on ABC. Trump will insist on Fox News as the debate hosts and moderators. There's no way Harris will go along with that, and so my prediction is you probably won't see another debate, other than the Vance-Walz showdown on October 1st. 

Taking very seriously the counsel of my friend, Scott Rasmussen, cautioning me a couple days ago on X against expressing exuberance, I remain cautiously optimistic that Trump will pull this out on Election Day. It shouldn't be close, but it probably will. The mind reels at what the result could have been with even a smidgeon of debate prep. Imagine the House and Senate seats that could have been piled up in the Republican camp if the election were a blowout instead of a squeaker. 

If Trump's numbers do go up, can it still be said that Kamala won the debate? Maybe politicos like me are missing what the swing voters, the intended audience of the debate, saw and heard. If they're breaking in larger numbers for Trump, he may have won the debate after all. Winning ugly, as Mick Jagger sang, but winning nonetheless.