You know, the nearer her destination, the more Kamala Harris is slip slidin' away.

On the eve of the one, and probably only, debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the polling continues to show the air is leaking out of the tires of her campaign. And unless the debate proves to to be a gamechanger for her, it appears the history books will record that the country reached peak Kamala about 10 days ago, and the waters continued receding all the way to November. 

Real Clear Politics, in their average of averages between Trump and Harris, showed the Vice President with her biggest lead from August 31-September 2, a 1.9% margin. It's been slipping a tenth of a point every couple days since as each new poll is released. It currently stands at 1.4% nationally for Harris, but the movement in the battleground states is where she's really running into trouble.

The RCP battleground average shows Harris retreating from her high water mark of a 0.5% lead on August 29. It now stands at 0.1%. It's not any one poll that is key. It's the trend of all of them. Nate Silver's probability index reflects the polling large and small, and calculates that Donald Trump currently enjoys his biggest percent chance of winning the election in November than he has since late July when Joe Biden was his Democratic opponent.

#Latest @NateSilver538 Forecast:

Chance of winning:
Trump 62% (+24)
Harris 38%
.
Electoral votes:
Trump 278
Harris 260https://t.co/t2BOJDEpnT https://t.co/9gMc9dQzxR pic.twitter.com/3z3Ij6sclF

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 8, 2024

'It's as tight as a tick,' you'll hear the pundits say. 'The election couldn't be closer than it is right now.' If all you look at is the top line and ignore the last two election cycles, the upward trend of Trump and the downward trend of Harris of late, as well as the cross-tabs in some of the more recent polling, including the brand-new New York Times/Siena poll, you'll see that the election is gradually slipping away from Kamala Harris. 

The biggest selling point of a Kamala Harris presidency, if you are one who gets your news from regime media, is that Kamala represents a change, a new path forward, totally ignoring the fact that she's the current sitting vice president of the United States. Kamala, the change agent, was the overall message of the Democratic National Convention. How's that messaging going? Not well. In the New York Times/Siena poll, now showing a Trump lead of 2 points with all candidates in the field, comes this nugget that Jeffrey Blehar discovered over at National Review. 

The most interesting number in the poll — the one that may tell the tale in November — came from NYT/Siena’s questions to likely voters: (1) Do you want a “major change” in this election? (2) Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, which candidate “represented a major change” from Biden? On the first, over 60 percent said yes — a staggering number. And then in answer to question 2, only 25 percent of likely voters said Kamala Harris represented that change. Fifty-three percent said Trump did.

So the 'Kamala as change' line went over with poll respondents about as well as her price controls and housing subsidies economic vision. But wait, there's more. 

Trump's share of Black voters, September 2020 NYT/Siena poll: 7%

Trump's share of Black voters, September 2024 NYT/Siena poll: 17%

Trump's share of Latino voters, September 2020 NYT/Siena poll: 31%

Trump's share of Latino voters, September 2024 NYT/Siena poll: 42%

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) September 8, 2024

If that polling holds until November, here's how devastating that is for Democrats. 

According to Pew Research, as of 2020, there were roughly 30 million eligible Black voters in the United States, a third of them, or 10 million, residing in the seven swing states. Blacks tend to have, according to recent electoral data, over a 60% participation rate in voting. So let's take a harder look at the swing states. If six million Blacks cast a vote this November, and Donald Trump earns 17% of those voters instead of 7%, that's a net increase of 600,000. 

A similar study by Pew looking at Latino voters show that there are 39.2 million eligible Latino voters, which is an increase over 2020. The participation rate is a little over 50%. Again, if the NYT/Siena polling reflects the new reality of the share Donald Trump is getting with Latinos, that's a net gain of at least 2.16 million votes nationally. 

Now for Trump's strong suit - male voters. CNN/SRSS released a poll last week in swing states, and the cross-tabs were remarkable. Trump's lead over Harris among male voters has increased to 55-41%. Increased from what, you ask? The same polling outfit in March, when it was Trump-Biden, had the edge for Trump among men at 51-41%. 

Another comparison to make is now versus Donald Trump in 2016 when he ran against another female Democratic candidate - Hillary Clinton. Hillary lost the male vote by a margin of 11%. Trump's edge was 52-41. His margin now is larger than his winning edge over Hillary in 2016. Out of nearly 58 million men that vote, a 4-point bump for Trump is worth 2.3 million votes. And in this comparison, Hillary's edge among women was 13 points, 54-41%. Harris is underperforming that. For instance, in the latest CNN/SRSS poll of Georgia, the vice president leads by 10 points over Donald Trump. 

This is a lot of data to digest, but the bottom line to all of it is that every one of these movements in electoral sub-groups represent major chunks of votes that are moving Donald Trump's way, even with the most joyful candidate ever running against him - millions of votes at a time, in some cases. And this is an electorate where 43,000 votes between Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin in 2020 gave the Electoral College edge to Joe Biden. 

With all of this as a backdrop, what's the trendline of how the campaigns, and regime media, are handling things a day in front of the debate?

Kamala Harris broke her 5-day Pittsburgh isolation by going to a crazy person's store, and talking for 10 minutes to Uforia radio network's Edna 'Angel Baby' Chapa. Simple enough question - what do you say to voters who believe Trump would be better on the economy? Warning: Word salad ahead.



Oh, that debate prep is going fine, I see. This is why her campaign won't let her talk off prompter in public. This is why party elites are having flop sweats over the debate Tuesday night. 

Meanwhile, Tim Walz thinks gays are illegal in Nebraska. 



Donald Trump talked to tens of thousands in Mosinee, Wisconsin, and promised Liberation Day was coming on November 5th.



I've said for quite a while that Kamala Harris can't win the debate, but Donald Trump can lose it. Kamala Harris will do everything in her limited power to goad Trump into losing his cool and coming across looking like a jerk. Trump's first debate performance in 2020 against Joe Biden was way overheated, and it most likely cost him the election with independents and suburban moms. He is poised to win enough of them back due to the Biden/Harris track performance on the economy the last four years, but he has to look presidential, and encourage ABC moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis to challenge Kamala on all of her flip-flops. The more Kamala has to defend her views this week versus the views of her entire public career, the more Trump buries her in swing states the rest of the way to Election Day. 

Harris' surrogates didn't do her any favors on the Sunday shows. Bernie Sanders admitted she's pandering for votes, but her genuine radical views haven't changed. 



And Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock got pressed about not just gun control, the talking point Kamala wishes to use, but mandatory gun confiscation. Warnock, another Harris surrogate, tried to steer around the issue, but affirmed that taking guns has to be the logical conclusion here. 



Why are Harris' surrogates so bad? Because no one really knows what ground Harris is attempting to stake out on virtually every important issue set about which voters care. And Harris and Walz are not appearing anywhere themselves to set the agenda. Their campaign website just came out with some policy positions...today, 57 days in front of the election, when absentee ballots have already gone out in some states. 

As for regime media, they're running out of gas trying to cover for the Harris campaign. Here's James Hohmann of the Washington Post. 

Kamala Harris just went to Penzeys Spices and bought Creamy Peppercorn Dressing Base, Fox Point Seasoning, Trinidad Lemon-Garlic Marinade, Turkish Seasoning, and Tuscan Sunset Salt Free Italian Seasoning.

— James Hohmann (@jameshohmann) September 7, 2024

Pulitzer Prize caliber stuff here. But this at least was just a tweet. The Associated Press, fresh off their slanderous performance in covering J.D. Vance in Phoenix last week, followed it up with this riveting deep dive of Kamala Harris' eating habits. 

Harris turns to her favorite foods in effort show a more private side and connect with voters https://t.co/DEWdNzHeJe

— The Associated Press (@AP) September 8, 2024

Enjoy the debate show. If ABC tanks the moderation, it helps Trump. If Harris' past is prologue, it all but seals the deal for the former President. If Trump takes the bait and goes full Col. Jessup, well, it's been nice knowing you, America.