Kim Reynolds is by far the most popular Republican in the state of Iowa. The 63-year former Clarke County Treasurer, the two-term Iowa State Senator, two-term lieutenant governor, and now second term governor of the Hawkeye state, is also the first woman in Iowa to serve in that role. She consistently outpolls other statewide officeholders, including Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst. She was chosen to deliver the response to the State of the Union address in 2022, and absolutely killed it.
She’s a player. She’s widely considered to be in the top tier of potential vice president candidates for the Republicans in 2024.
Iowa is always the first state to kick off primary season with their legendary caucuses. With Iowa and New Hampshire being the first two, candidates usually live in those two states for six months leading up to January. The first presidential debates are usually held in one or both of those states because they show the mood of the base and indicate which direction the party will go for their nominee. Long-standing tradition has been for the governors of both early states to be neutral, even if they have a personal preference.
Why? Because it’s good for business to have every candidate compete for votes and attention. They have to come to the fair. They have to press the flesh. They have to do rallies. They have to bring in a ground game to get out the vote and knock on doors. It brings a lot of money and attention into the states, so there’s no earthly reason why a popular governor would take sides this early.
Donald Trump, if you are to believe the polls, is up a thousand points on his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In fact, if the polls are to be believed, they might as well not even hold the caucuses in six months and just coronate the former President by acclamation. But Donald Trump isn’t acting like he has much faith in those polls, and apparently really wanted Governor Reynolds’ endorsement, and wanted it now. And because he hasn’t gotten it, he naturally went on the attack.
Annnnd Trump just lost the Iowa caucus: pic.twitter.com/bRrlEoDltZ
— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) July 10, 2023
It must be exhausting to be a follower of the former President, because there’s always a new target to rage against. Ron DeSantis is not a real conservative, Mike Pence isn’t one either, and now Kim Reynolds, one of the more accomplished women in the GOP, isn’t an ally to the cause of conservatism? Really?
As with most Trump attacks, there’s usually a kernel of substance in his missives, but it’s drowned out by an ever-expanding id.
It is true that Donald Trump selected then-Governor Terry Branstad to be ambassador to China in 2017, elevating Reynolds to the governorship with the vacancy. The closest election she’s ever had was her first gubernatorial election in 2018. Reynolds has claimed in the years since that the reason her first election was so close was because Trump was a drag on the turnout nationwide, which is true and can be measured by the mid-term Congressional races that saw the House of Representatives flipping to the Democrats, giving Nancy Pelosi a second tenure as Speaker. And yes, it’s true that some polling in the state at one point showed her down a bit. But Reynolds eventually won by three points, and absolutely cruised in her reelect in 2022, winning by 19 points. But while Trump is taking credit for her victory in 2018, he’s leaving out a controversial detail which actually might explain Reynolds’ win in 2018 more than Trump rallies.
Her campaign co-chair in 2018 was former Iowa Congressman Steve King. Now to say King is eccentric doesn’t do justice to the word eccentric. He has made racial statements that are simply impossible to defend, but he was an icon in the 4th Congressional district around Des Moines, and there’s a lot of people that vote there. She was pressured to dump King after his white nationalist and anti-Semitic rhetoric, but she kept him on board while distancing herself from his rhetoric, making a shrewd political calculation that paid off. The 4th Congressional district, King’s district, turned out for her on Election Day in 2018, netting her 61% of the vote. That’s what propelled her to victory, and immediately after her win, she denounced King and said he needed to change his approach. But the reality is that it was her performance in the western half of the state that earned her the victory, much more than any impact of Trump rallies.
Trump has already shown some cracks in the armor of his political support in Iowa when he cancelled a scheduled rally last minute a month ago due to weather concerns. There was a chance of tornados, so the former President didn’t fly in. The skies remained blue the rest of the day, and Ron DeSantis capitalized on the decision by driving up from another part of the state and appearing at a restaurant just down the road from the planned rally site. There was widespread speculation that the true reason for the cancellation of the rally was that the stands were not expected to be filled to capacity, and that’s not something Trump can endure – a lackluster crowd.
Another early Iowa political ritual for any would-be GOP contender is Bob Vander Plaat’s Family Leadership Summit. This is a forum where all of the candidates in the field get a chance to address the state’s religious conservatives, of which they are legion. Donald Trump chose not to attend this year. Vander Plaats appeared on radio in Iowa and said this about the former President’s decision to not only skip his event, but other conservative events in the state.
Even Nikki Haley, who has taken shots at every other candidate running but has been very delicate about commenting negatively about Trump, couldn’t figure out what the logic was in attacking Governor Reynolds.
David Kochel, admittedly someone not in the Trump fan club but nevertheless an astute observer of Iowa politics, posted a thread about the impact of Trump’s latest moved in Iowa. In short,
Trump's penchant for self-destruction is on full display in the Iowa campaign in 2023. Attacking @KimReynoldsIA isn't just stupid, it's insane. First, she's been a loyal supporter throughout his presidency. Second, she ran TEN points ahead of him in her last race.
— David Kochel (@ddkochel) July 12, 2023
Then, he bails on the FAMiLY Leader event four days before it happens, sponsored by the organization and leading Iowa conservative @bobvanderplaats. These are the voters that carried Trump through all of his troubles… made excuses for him, backed him.
— David Kochel (@ddkochel) July 12, 2023
So you ask, will Trump lose the Iowa caucuses over these things? Maybe, maybe not. He's got a very solid base in Iowa. At least 30%. But did he help himself? No, not at all. Did he hurt himself? Absolutely. He lost people and they said so. The former Iowa party co-chair is gone.
— David Kochel (@ddkochel) July 12, 2023
Time will tell if Trump’s polling numbers hold up in Iowa through the rest of summer and into the fall. But it sure seems to me like the former President is not employing a campaign strategy that will net any new voters to his base by attacking Governor Reynolds, and he only risks bleeding away Iowans who were once supporters because of his antics.
