Ten months out from the Iowa caucus, and the game is on inside both parties to see what the field will look like for president. Oh, sure, one can focus on the Republican side, but there’s just as much activity going on within the Democratic Party.
Conventional wisdom would have you believe that 2024 is shaping up to be the incumbent Democrat versus the Republican who believes he is the incumbent, because there’s no way Donald Trump thinks he lost fair and square in 2020.
Polling is all over the map and generally unreliable, but if there’s one consistent trend in virtually every poll, regardless of the partisan makeup of the respondents in these polls, are that a majority of Americans do not want to see Joe Biden run again because he’s too old for the job. Trump, albeit not showing the same signs of aging Biden displays, still gets caught up in the electorate’s overall desire to turn the page and look for a little younger leadership going forward.
On the Republican side, CPAC held its annual festivities, including a keynote address by the former President, and what was fascinating about the speech wasn’t so much what Trump said, it was how populated the room was, as Chris Christie noted Sunday on ABC’s This Week.
There was immediate pushback on Christie from Only Trumpers on Twitter and other social media platforms, but the underlying question of Trump’s durability as a political force is very much in doubt. He’ll always have his core followers no matter what. But if the room was only half-full at a CPAC rally, which really really are his core people, how well-attended will his rallies be as he rolls out his ’24 campaign in earnest?
Ron DeSantis was in California late last week at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley and spoke to a packed room. His potential campaign camp has raised the stakes to get him to come speak – $1 million a throw.
The biggest news over the weekend wasn’t so much as who got into the GOP field as who didn’t and why. Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan on Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan said at the end of the day, the bigger the GOP field, the easier of a road it would be for Trump. Hogan said he can’t stand for that, so he’s not going to get in. Theoretically, that abandons the centrist lane, if such a viable lane still exists in the party, for Christie and/or New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu. Here’s Hogan:
Sununu also made the rounds, appearing on Meet the Press with Chuck Todd. The popular four-time governor of New Hampshire, having just won reelection easily in the Granite State, raised eyebrows Sunday by claiming if the primary were held today, DeSantis, not Sununu, would win. And this appearance comes just as the Wall Street Journal laments the poor chances to get the GOP nomination of an otherwise good, moderate Republican.
Nikki Haley continues to go wherever she can and speak to whoever will have her in order to build her small donor base and get her campaign off the ground, including at CPAC. And former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made news on Fox News Sunday with Shannon Bream by separating himself on domestic economic policy from his former boss by saying anyone who raises the debt by $6 trillion dollars can’t be called a conservative. So there’s lots of maneuvering taking place on the right.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s path to re-nomination will not be unobstructed, as Marianne Williamson has jumped back in after her doomed run in 2020. Her message? The system is rigged.
Truthfully, she’s kind of a nutty person, and her candidacy doesn’t resemble a serious one. And that’s what scares the left looking at an increasingly addled Biden who can’t seem to get out of his own way. The New York Times got into the ‘Draft Pritzker’ game by saying what a good backup plan the governor of Illinois would be. Naturally, CBS’ Brennan picked up on that and featured Governor Pritzker on Face the Nation Sunday. When asked if he’d run, this is what he said.
Saying ‘I’m flattered’ isn’t exactly a Shermanesque no, is it? Brennan pressed him, and he rhetorically asked why would he run after Biden has done such a good job, which no one believes even within the media bubble on the left. If that were the case, there wouldn’t have been the New York Times story and CBS interview in the first place. And then there’s the cagy specter of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.
He’s going to be a vulture hovering in the skies in lazy circles over the carcass of Biden all year before deciding whether to be the ‘break glass in case of failed Democratic president’ guy. Bottom line? Name the last three Democratic incumbent presidents prior to Joe Biden – Barack Obama in 2012, Bill Clinton in 1996, Jimmy Carter in 1980. Obama ran unopposed by anyone serious, not losing one delegate. And Clinton only lost one delegate to Lyndon LaRouche. Carter was the only Democrat who faced even a modicum of a challenge for the primary in his reelection in 1980, and that was only until Ted Kennedy ran into Roger Mudd who dared to ask him on live television why he wanted to be president. It was over after that.
And speaking of Kennedy, did I forget to mention that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is now signaling he’s going to get into the race to primary Biden?
The point to all of this is the Democrats have a Joe Biden problem, and they know it. Their allies in media know it. They may all rally to his defense and try to drag him across the finish line in 2024 by downplaying or smothering any negative story with a pillow until it stops moving, to quote our friend, David Burge (@IowahawkBlog), but he’s getting worse with age, both in policy and in performance, and he’s angering the very people he’s allied with in the House. Most recently, Biden signaled he wanted to support the District of Columbia’s crime bill, which is a disaster, by the way, and teased that he’d veto Republican attempts to overturn that D.C. law. The House Democrats raced to Biden’s defense, voting to support D.C., and Biden, or so they thought, with 173 House Democrats putting themselves out on the plank. What did Biden do last week? Sawed the plank off, indicating he’d go along with the Republicans’ bill and not veto it. Make no mistake, House Democrats, especially the progressive ones, are not happy at all right now. Manchin may not be their preferred alternative candidate, but they’re looking for someone – anyone – to challenge Biden for the nomination. This really is uncharted territory for American politics in the last half century.
I’ll leave you with this. You might read this and ask if the House progressives are disillusioned with Biden, what about Bernie Sanders giving it another go in 2024? That’s what makes this cut so much fun. Here he is from Friday with Bill Maher:
The funny part? Technically, Bernie and Bill are right. Equality is about equal opportunity, equity is about throwing various amounts of resources in order to achieve an equal outcome. And when pressed, Bernie chooses opportunity over equal outcomes. He’s absolutely correct. And it’s exactly the opposite of what he and his progressive minions on the left have been championing for decades. You have to think that AOC looked at that and said, “Et tu, Bernie?”
Fun times, I tell you. And it’s not even spring, yet.