Quite simply, it’s Go Time for Pence. There will never be a better time for him to run down the road. It’s now or never.

My goal, as always, is to remain in political Switzerland and just bring you the best arguments for each candidate, and the biggest hurdles they’ll have to overcome in order to make it through the primary process and on to a general election.

The case for Mike Pence

1. Iceman – Mike Pence almost certainly has ice water running through his veins. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s a calm, steady hand that can reassure a country that’s on its last nerve. After four years of Donald Trump breaking the proverbial China, and the next four years bringing textbooks to life as 70s-level inflation under Joe Biden rears its ugly head, and with half the country diametrically opposed to the other half of the country, somebody with a more soothing delivery is what is needed the most.

2. Experience – Pence spent a dozen years in the Congress, rising to the third-highest Republican in the House of Representatives. He chaired the Republican Study Committee as well as well as House Republican Conference. He also has governing experience, both as governor of Indiana and as Vice President. He knows how federal agencies run, and most importantly, how they should run in the future.

3. Character – Yes, Pence has presidential ambitions. He also happens to genuinely be a good person. He doesn’t just talk the talk of his Christian faith, he walks it. His faith is genuine. You wouldn’t have a second thought about Mike Pence watching your kids or grandkids, which is something you couldn’t say about super creepy hair-sniffing Joe Biden. If Pence gives you his word, the odds are pretty high he’ll keep it.

4. Conservatism credentials – whether it’s economic issues, national security issues, or social issues, Mike Pence is a true throwback to the Ronald Reagan era. He’s a mainstream conservative on virtually every issue. He’s really not a populist MAGA type nor is he truly establishment. He’s exactly in the mold of a doctrinaire Republican, the type of generic Republican that actually did very well nationally in the midterms last week. If he hadn’t been Vice President under Donald Trump and instead were merely running for Congress, he would have won his seat by 10 points. On policy for Republicans, he’s just not a controversial guy.

5. Skilled communicator – If there’s one political skill set Mike Pence has in great supply, it’s the ability to articulate his message. In electronic media, whether television or radio, he’s very, very good at it. During the COVID pandemic, after Donald Trump started the COVID task force and held frenetic press conferences every day that only served to add to the country’s unease, Mike Pence eventually came in to conduct the daily briefings and delivered immediate results. He was calm, rational, and demonstrated competency. He’s going to need that communications skill a lot if he runs, because the first negative is also a very big one.

The case against Mike Pence

1. “It didn’t end well.” – That statement to Sean Hannity on Fox earlier this week was an understatement to say the least. In a ceremonial role of certifying electors, officially bringing to a close Election 2020, Pence did not take the bait presented by some of the Trump legal team that he could hijack the process and declare the election fraudulent, allowing Trump to remain president. Pence, under tremendous pressure, made the right decision, and it was the Constitutional position. But that decision has left Pence the political equivalent of the dead skunk in the middle of the road. Trump loyalists in the Republican party will never trust him. They believe he’s a traitor to their cause, because he didn’t upend the election results for Trump. Never Trump Inc. that remain in the Republican Party will never vote for him because they can’t forgive him for going along with Trump for as long as he did in the first place. And the food fight between Trump and Pence on a GOP debate stage is not going to be pretty. And Democrats and independents will be hard-pressed to consider Pence in a general even if he did survive the primaries as the nominee. In short, a Pence presidential constituency would start especially small for someone who was Vice President just two years ago. His bona fides as a viable contender will have to be a complete remake. The book is the beginnings of that remake.

2. Too conservative for 2024? – Most of us with gray hair remember the late, great William F. Buckley from the National Review. He had a famous motto, crafted out of the 1964 GOP primary between Nelson Rockefeller and Barry Goldwater – We will support the rightwardmost viable candidate for a given office. Pence is very conservative. The country right now seems pretty locked into being a 50/50 country. Pence won routinely from Indiana, which is a pretty conservative state. Can Pence’s message resonate in the upper Midwest? Can he convince moderates in Pennsylvania? Wisconsin, Michigan? That’s a big, big question mark.

3. Which way is the wind blowing? – Even though Pence stood strong against the pressure to overturn the 2020 election, he has a history of backing down to political pressure. Pence, as governor of Indiana in 2015, signed a religious freedom restoration act that had religious conservatives cheering. He championed the new law, telling ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that “we are not going to change this law.” Until they changed the law after a sustained wave of protests from concerned LGBT groups saying the discrimination that would come would be unconstitutional. The law was ultimately amended, weakening it some, and Pence signed the revision. He’ll have to demonstrate he’ll govern on what’s right, not what’s most popular.

4. P.R. stunt magnet – Pence got grief at the time for taking Air Force Two to attend a football game between the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers. When 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick took a knee during the National Anthem, Pence walked out of the game. It wasn’t the first time Pence had done a publicity stunt, and Lord knows he’s not the only politician ever to have done anything like that. They all do. But he’ll be held to a standard Democrats aren’t. And his Christian faith will be used against him every time he is perceived to conduct a stunt.

5. Health? – Pence has always looked fit and sounds like his blood pressure never gets above 110. However, in early 2021, he was diagnosed with a slow or irregular heartbeat, and had to have a pacemaker installed. I don’t expect this to be a dealbreaker, especially considering some of the other negatives, but someone in either the primary or the general will claim his ticker may not be up to the task of running for, and ultimately becoming president.

A few more possible contenders to go, I think, in this series, depending on the reverberations of the Trump announcement Tuesday night. Senator Rick Scott really wants to run, but might not now after the disappointing midterm elections, and Senator Tim Scott really wants to run as well. And then there’s Chris Christie and Larry Hogan to represent the moderate wing of the Republican party. Stay tuned for more.