Heh. This is from yesterday evening, but I think it still pretty darn relevant after another day of John Kerry testifying at Congressional hearings concerning Syria, this time over on the House side. The administration is putting on their confident face in insisting that “limited action” will accomplish their stated stop-chemical-weapons-use, get-in-get-out immediate goal, but they’re certainly positing to know an awful lot about exactly how that “limited action” will play out in that very unpredictable region. The segment starts out with a clip from yesterday’s Senate hearing, and you can practically see Paul resisting the urge to roll his eyes when Kerry emphatically insists that if we don’t “hold them accountable” on their chemical-weapons use, it’s “a guarantee that Assad will do it again.”

Well, he sounds like he must be a clairvoyant because he can predict the future now and we should ask him for stock picks, who name it, who will win the Kentucky derby next year if he can guarantee the future. No one can guarantee the future. We don’t know how Assad will react and I think there’s an equal argument to be made if the U.S. bombs him that it will be more likely that he launches another gas attack, more likely that he might attack Israel, more likely that there will be more instability in the region. More likely that the Russians might get involved or Iran might get involved. So, I think there are arguments to be made on both sides of this, but it’s not some kind of slam dunk guarantee that Secretary Kerry makes it out to be. He’s overstating his ability to predict the future.