Well… her confidence, at least, is compelling. From the WashTimes:
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi isn’t a mathematician, but on Wednesday she shared with reporters an intricate arithmetical formula that shows a “very doable” path for Democrats to win back the House in the November elections.
Most political experts and race forecasters predict Democrats will pick up up only a handful of the 25 seats needed to recapture the chamber from Republicans. But the California Democrat, while speaking at a breakfast news briefing Wednesday sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, said the task is “very doable.” And her victory plan hinges on the 63 Republican-held seats won by President Obama four years ago.
And of the 45 remaining seats, she said that, conservatively, her party should win one-third, or 15 seats. If her math proved true, the tally would be a pickup of 27 seats — two more than needed to win the House.
Uh huh. Of course, anything’s possible, I suppose, and who knows what might happen in the two remaining months until the election. But, if I absolutely had to put my money somewhere, at this moment I’d bet on the Congressional status quo remaining as-is. Just generally, with the national presidential poll numbers being so interminably close, I’m thinking Democrats may net a few House seats (and it seems like many of the pundits and pollsters concur), but I’m not sure I would count on the 27-seat swing Rep. Pelosi is looking for to jeopardize Boehner’s speakership. And as of July, at least, the Republicans are still besting their rivals in terms of campaign cash:
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) outpaced its Democratic rival in July fundraising, bringing in $11.7 million to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) $8.2 million.
The NRCC expanded its cash-on-hand edge as well, with $48.9 million in the bank to the DCCC’s $36.2 million. The committee whose party is in the majority usually has the edge in fundraising.
Anyhow, the Senate is in much closer contention for a change-up, with 23 Democratic and 10 Republican seats in the mix, and some tough toss-ups in presidential battleground states — gotta’ admit, I’m a wee bit more nervous about the Senate and obviously the presidency than I am about Pelosi’s prediction’s for an upset.