Hmm: Romney, 269; Obama, 243?

As ever, it’s still just a lot of guesswork with a heck of a lot of variables at this point, but sure — I’ll take it. The Weekly Standard cobbled together Rasmussen’s latest polling on the nine most significant swing states with available data, along with the other 41 states running along the red/blue dichotomy you’d expect in a tight race. With Romney winning Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa; Obama taking Pennsylvania and Nevada; and ties in Virginia and Colorado, the result… ain’t too shabby.

Rasmussen’s latest polling of likely voters in states across the land shows Mitt Romney currently leading President Barack Obama in the quest for electoral votes.  In fact, if the 9 key swing states were each to go according to Rasmussen’s latest polling, and if the 41 other states (plus Washington, D.C.) were each to go as they would be expected to go in a tight race, Obama would have 243 electoral votes and Romney 269 — enough for a tie (and an almost inevitable victory in the House of Representatives, where the 50 state delegations would each cast one vote to determine the president). …

Romney leads by very narrow margins in some of these states, and some of Rasmussen’s statewide polls are more current than others. Still, it’s interesting to see how the candidates stack up in the latest tallies from the only national polling outfit that’s currently screening for likely voters.

Getting a solid foothold in the aforementioned swing states is going to be a challenge — as Gov. Scott Walker said Thursday morning, even his recent victory against union power doesn’t mean his state is anything even approaching a safe bet.

The Badger state’s Republican governor and newly crowned conservative hero on the national scale says he believes it’s possible– but Romney will need more than just a party affiliation.

“He’s got a shot,” Walker told reporters in Washington, D.C., Thursday morning. “He needs a clear plan.”

It’s not enough that both men are Republicans–a simple association with him won’t be enough to win in the state, Walker says. …

A Republican presidential candidate has not won the state of Wisconsin since Reagan in 1984, but Walker noted that the margin of victory has been close in recent years.

“Wisconsin 2000, 2004, was the closest blue state in America,” Walker noted.

There are other data sets out there showing plenty of varying electoral outcomes, but I’m inclined to agree with Rep. Paul Ryan about Mitt Romney’s position right now: The fact that Romney’s already going toe-to-toe with the incumbent’s massive campaign machine should be giving President Obama cause for alarm. And if you want to get really optimistic, check out Henrik Temp (a la Michael Barone)’s theory on the electoral possibilities — if we’re to expect more of the sort of “reframing speech”-duds that Obama proffered today, I’d bet Romney has this one in the bag.

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David Strom 12:31 PM on December 08, 2022