Welcome back to another test of the Democrat sanity system! And, perhaps, the national sanity broadcast system as well. Voters go to the polls today in New Hampshire to nominate candidates from both parties for the Senate, the House, and for governor.
In the Senate primaries, though, we should make it three parties. Incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement last year, and House Democrat Chris Pappas jumped into the race immediately. Pappas looked to be a cinch for the nomination. However, Democratic Socialist Karishma Manzur entered the race late – and may have picked up some momentum. The most recent poll from the University of New Hampshire only has Pappas ahead by 47/34, hardly a confidence-builder for the Democrat establishment. Our election night partners at Decision Desk HQ try to follow the money, but also note that the GOP seems to be playing catch-up in a potential November flip:
But money talks, so it may be a tell that two pro-Pappas groups felt the need to fork out $175,000 in the closing days for get-out-the-vote calls and texts supporting the congressman. Defend the Vote made a $100,000 outlay, while pro-LGBTQ Equality PAC spent $75,000 (if elected, Pappas would become the first openly gay man to serve in the Senate).
The purple-tinted Granite State has had a light-blue lean in recent federal elections, last voting for a Republican for Senate in 2010 and a GOP presidential contender in 2000. But that recent UNH poll also found Pappas narrowly trailing GOP frontrunner, ex-Sen. John E. Sununu, 45%-43%. To be clear, this was Sununu’s best recent poll result, and the Decision Desk HQ forecast gives Democrats about a 4 in 5 shot of winning the seat. Still, Democrats are more concerned about holding this seat.
The Sununu name is part of the path to a plausible Republican victory in what otherwise looks like a Democratic-leaning year. A former U.S. senator and representative, Sununu won this very Senate seat in 2002 versus Shaheen before losing a rematch against her in the blue-wave year of 2008. Despite that defeat, Sununu remains a prestigious brand name in New Hampshire politics. In January 2025, John’s popular young brother Chris finished off an eight-year run as governor before deciding against his own bid for Senate. Their father, John H. Sununu, served as New Hampshire’s governor for three two-year terms in the 1980s and then as President George H.W. Bush’s first chief of staff.
In other words, the GOP has an uphill battle in the Granite State no matter what. However, having Sununu ready to return puts them in as good a position as Republicans can manage. That may be even more true, given Sununu's nearly 20-year absence, which may allow him to present a more independent positioning in the general election. If Democrats nominate Manzur, Sununu's odds may improve considerably.
The only other major drama will be for Pappas' House seat in NH-01, a D+2 district that narrowly went to Kamala Harris in 2024. Shaheen's daughter Stefany is running against former Marine Corps vet Maura Sullivan, and they have both been raising significant amounts of money, combining for about $6 million already. Outside spending has been almost twice that number. Whoever wins will likely face off against Trump-endorsed, self-funding entrepreneur Anthony DiLorenzo, although fellow entrepreneur Hollie Noveletsky still has a shot.
Most polls close in New Hampshire at 7 PM ET, although a few will remain open until 8 PM ET. Follow the results tonight with our partners at Decision Desk HQ, and get the most reliable calls in the business!
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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