Alternate headline: Trump Not Falling For the Tehran Two-Step In the Tailpipe Trick.
Maybe.
Earlier today, we covered the news that Iran had submitted another proposal to settle the war with the US, just after hitting the UAE's nuclear power plant in a drone attack. It appeared to be yet another stall tactic after Donald Trump began posting dire warnings about military options on Truth Social yesterday. If so, Ahmad Vahidi may soon discover that the stall cycle has shortened considerably:
Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal, a senior U.S. official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios.
Why it matters: U.S. officials say President Trump wants a deal to end the war, but is considering resuming it due to Iran's rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program.
Trump is expected to convene his top national security team in the Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options, two U.S. officials said.
The senior U.S. official said that if Iran won't shift its position, the U.S. will have to continue the negotiations "through bombs."
The last time around, Trump waited ten days for Vahidi to respond to his 14-point "framework." It's not even clear that Trump has directly read the whole proposal before rejecting it. The White House likely got briefed by the Pakistanis on the contents first, perhaps through Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner or through official channels to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The drift became clear this morning when the IRGC's media outlets began making claims that Trump and the US had agreed to several concessions, including on nuclear development, that contradicted Trump's clear red lines. These outlets also gave some details about the new proposal, which sounds very much like their previous proposals:
US President Donald Trump will freeze sanctions on Iranian oil during ongoing nuclear talks, the semi-official Tasnim News Agency reports, citing an Iranian source close to the country’s negotiating team.
This would represent a new concession by the US. ...
Separately, a senior Iranian source tells Reuters that Washington has also shown flexibility on allowing Iran to maintain limited peaceful nuclear activities under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In its new proposal, the source says, Iran has again focused on securing an end to the war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and lifting maritime sanctions.
The more contentious issues around Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment, which remain the most difficult parts of the negotiations, have been deferred to later rounds of talks.
Vahidi may have taken a page out of Trump's playbook. Trump has made claims about verbal agreements made with elements within the regime remnants, either because Abbas Araghchi, Mohammed Ghalibaf, and Masoud Pezeshkian actually agreed to them or to stir up factional friction within the regime. Vahidi may be trying to undermine Trump's hardline-ish position by making it sound as though he's crossed his own red lines, hoping to complicate Trump's domestic politics as well as split him from Israel and the other Gulf states.
One could call that a banana in the tailpipe trick, or better yet, the Tehran Two-Step in the tailpipe trick. Trump doesn't appear to be falling for it, although it's still not clear whether he's ready to step off with new military action at this very moment. Trump ramped up the rhetoric over the past 24 hours, perhaps hoping it would force Vahidi to recalculate, but he's not getting the message that Trump and Gen. Dan Caine intended to send with their "restraint."
Vahidi may realize that the ruse is wearing thin. CNN reports that the IRGC is now arming and training both men and women to fight Americans and Israelis if they invade the capital:
The rallies, or “night-gatherings” have been taking place across the country every evening for nearly three months, essentially since the start of the war.
But recent days have seen the ominous appearance of public gun kiosks, where civilians are being offered basic lessons in using weapons – a sign of how the hardening Iranian authorities are readying people for further conflict.
At one kiosk in Vanak Square, we saw a woman dressed in a black chador learning how to handle an AK-47 assault rifle, with a masked man in military fatigues showing her how to strip and assemble the weapon.
A few feet away, a small girl played with an unloaded Kalashnikov, aiming the weapon into the air before pulling the trigger and handing the gun back to her smiling instructor.
The general call to arms is also being reiterated on state television, with several channels broadcasting their hosts brandishing assault rifles.
One male anchor, Hossein Hosseini, on the state-run Ofogh channel, fired his rifle – on live television – into the studio ceiling after receiving a lesson from a masked member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC.
This looks more like a morale/propaganda operation than a real preparation to take on professional soldiers from top-drawer militaries. However, it may well backfire on the IRGC. The US has tried to get small arms to Iranian civilians in Tehran and other power centers in an attempt to give more power to a populist uprising. If the IRGC really is passing around automatic weapons to the people, it may not be long before those muzzles are pointed downrange at the Basij ... especially if the next round of military strikes takes out power and transportation targets supporting the IRGC's military-industrial infrastructure. When the economy completely collapses, the people will have the means to act out their desperation and anger at targets that really deserve it.
However, they won't act if the US continues to attempt to cut deals with Vahidi and the IRGC. The people will not act only to discover that Trump let Vahidi and the lunatic regime off the hook, where the IRGC and Basij can wreak retaliation and revenge once the US removes pressure on the regime. In polite terms, it's time to fish or cut bait with the IRGC.
