Did America win the war against Iran? Or did we just postpone the game until the weather clears?
Militarily, there is little doubt that the Iranians got outclassed from the start by the US and Israel. That, however, is not the same as victory for us or defeat for the regime. As Secretary of War, however, Pete Hegseth's portfolio obviously focuses more on the military outcome, which was never in serious doubt anyway. Even Hegseth's victory declaration conceded that the scoreboard hasn't exactly closed down yet:
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Wednesday that American forces have secured a “historic and overwhelming victory” against Iran but said that military assets will remain in the region for now to ensure Tehran’s new leaders comply with the terms of a tentative peace deal between the nations.
“We’ll be hanging around. We’re not going anywhere,” Hegseth said during a Pentagon press conference a day after President Donald Trump announced a two-week pause in fighting amid peace negotiations. “Our troops are prepared to defend, prepared to go on offense, prepared to restart at a moment’s notice with whatever target package would be needed.”
That does not sound as though the war is over. Evidence for that goes beyond Hegseth's caution in keeping the victory parade confined to the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces continue to launch missiles and drones at Israel and the Gulf states, long after the cease-fire supposedly went into effect. When questioned about that, Hegseth advised the IRGC to use carrier pigeons to get the word out to their dead-enders in the field, or else:
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Wednesday that “Iran would be wise to find a way to get the carrier pigeon to their troops out in remote locations, to know not to shoot, not to shoot any longer one-way attacks or missiles,” as reports of continued strikes surfaced after the… pic.twitter.com/hLZutmr0ZM
— CBS News (@CBSNews) April 8, 2026
We probably need to wait for the "cease" to take effect before invoking the ten-run rule. Hegseth expressed confidence in the deal, however. The plain fact is that Iran has lost most of its ability to defend itself, and even the remaining missiles are a finite resource for a regime that now appears more desperate to survive than to facilitate the appearance of the Mahdi:
“In less than 40 days, Central Command, using less than 10 percent of America’s total combat power, dismantled one of the world’s largest militaries, the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism,” Hegseth said. “Iran proved utterly incapable of defending itself. … Together with our Israeli partners, America’s military achieved every single objective.”
Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine said that U.S. forces have struck more than 13,000 targets since the start of the military operation on Feb. 28. That includes “approximately 80 percent of Iran’s air defense systems, more than 1,500 air defense targets, more than 450 ballistic missile storage facilities, 800 one-way attack drones.”
That work has also included more than 700 strikes against naval mine targets in the Strait of Hormuz, which Caine assessed amounts to 95 percent of Iran’s stockpiles.
Caine has a clearer-eyed view of the cease-fire, calling it a "pause" in the same presser. The US will prep for a return to active military options if Iran refuses to abide by its terms, Caine insisted:
Gen. Dan Caine warned that the Pentagon is prepared to resume its military campaign against Iran if the cease-fire collapses. “A cease-fire is a pause,” said Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Caine described three military objectives of the operation: destroy Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capabilities; eliminate its navy; and destroy its defense-industrial base. The U.S. “achieved the military objectives as defined by the president,” Caine said.
That leaves out one key objective, however – the end of Iran's nuclear-weapons program and the surrender of its highly enriched uranium. Donald Trump insisted this morning that Iran had agreed to turn it over to either the US or the IAEA; the Iranians suggested in their Farsi version of the cease-fire statement that the US had conceded on enrichment activities. Hegseth insisted that the US would get the uranium stores, one way or the other:
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth expressed hope that Iran would turn over its highly enriched uranium and said that the U.S. reserved the military option to take the nuclear material if Iran refuses. “It’s buried, and we’re watching it,” Hegseth said. “They’ll give it to us voluntarily,” he said. “Or if we have to do something else ourselves…we reserve that opportunity.”
Iran hasn’t enriched uranium in recent months, U.S. officials say, and Tehran has said nothing publicly to suggest that it is prepared to hand over its highly enriched uranium. U.S. officials have said that a military option to seize the uranium in the face of Iranian resistance would be extremely challenging and could take hundreds and perhaps thousands of troops.
One has to wonder whether the rescue operation over the weekend might factor into the regime's sudden desire to seek a cease-fire. The US pulled off an astounding military feat in creating a forward operating base deep within enemy territory, complete with air-asset support, to get one man exfiltrated. In the process, US forces killed hundreds of Iranian fighters without losing a single casualty. If we can do that for a one-man retrieval operation on an ad-hoc basis, perhaps the idea of an American extraction operation at their uranium-storage sites is not sheer fantasy after all – or any other kind of extraction operation. Nicolas Maduro may have begun living full-time within their collective cranium at that point.
At this point, though, the best and worst one can say about this as a victory is that it's premature. The regime hasn't fallen; the Iranians still have the uranium; the Strait has not yet fully reopened. The missiles haven't even stopped flying, although Hegseth is correct that the cease-fire may take a while to spread after the massive damage the regime took to its command and control functions. It will take at least the two weeks to see whether the Iranian regime is serious about ending its status as a wannabe hegemon in the region. If the Iranians move on those uranium stores or begin to ramp up missile attacks, though, the US won't wait two weeks to enforce the terms of the deal.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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