Last call for Tennessee's seventh congressional district voters. Will they turn out to support Donald Trump, not to mention God and country music?
Or will Republicans lose another special election in the House, putting their control of the lower chamber at risk? Will Democrats gain even more political momentum?
Those questions became even more acute over the last fortnight. First, Marjorie Taylor Greene announced her resignation from Congress following a months-long feud with Trump. Next, an Emerson poll showed that Republican nominee Matt Van Epps held only a slight lead over Democrat Aftyn Behn, notwithstanding a series of oppo-research bombs that painted her as something of a lunatic. Given that TN-07 has a Cook index of R+10, a two-point edge in an Emerson poll doesn't exactly provide a warm and fuzzy feeling.
The key to any special election is turnout, and it matters even more in the election tomorrow in and around Nashville. Emerson's data shows Behn winning the early vote, while Van Epps would dominate Election Day tomorrow – assuming voters turn out:
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70.”
In other words, Van Epps needs a yuuuuge turnout tomorrow in TN-07. Only one Republican these days can drive that level of engagement, and yesterday he sent out a call to action on Truth Social. Trump encouraged voters to turn out in support of Van Epps, but also to oppose the opponent that "hates Christianity":
Trump also made a virtual appearance this morning at a rally in Nashville. "The whole world is watching," Trump declared, and urged his supporters to turn out as a demonstration of strength:
Democrats are framing the contest between Democrat Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps as a referendum on Trump’s second term, as the president faces slumping poll numbers, particularly in his handling of the economy. Early voting ended Nov. 26 with more than 84,000 ballots already cast, and voting wraps up Tuesday evening.
“The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they’re watching the district,” Trump said at a rally for Van Epps on Monday morning. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) was at the event and held his phone to the microphone so the crowd could hear the president.
“It’s got to show that the Republican Party is stronger than it’s ever been,” Trump said, encouraging Republicans to get out and vote.
It took Trump a while to get personally engaged in the TN-07 race. The resignation of Greene two weeks ago certainly changed the calculus. Greene will leave the House on January 5th, and the soonest that Georgia can hold a special election for that seat will be in May. That will leave Speaker Mike Johnson short a vote while already holding a wafer-thin margin for control of the House. If Republicans lose the seat that Mark Green (no relation) held until July along with MTG's absence, Johnson will have a zero-seat margin of error for at least four months.
Those four months will be critical for Trump's agenda. Republicans will have to pass the rest of the FY2026 budget and start working on a budget resolution for FY2027. They have begun discussing another reconciliation envelope in the next budget, perhaps to deal with health-care reforms for the first time since the 2017 attempt to repeal ObamaCare.
That may be why Trump's jumping into the race more forcefully now. The same Emerson poll shows his approval numbers flagging, and the WSJ notes that Republicans seemed gun-shy about setting this up as a referendum on Trump. Democrats had no such hesitation:
Advertisements in the race, including from outside groups like the conservative MAGA Inc. and Democratic-supporting House Majority PAC, show the challenges facing both parties.
Republican-backed ads have avoided mentioning Trump but have instead focused on attacking Behn as too liberal. Democratic ads have focused on tying Van Epps to Trump and files related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. “The Epstein files are locked away. Matt Van Epps will keep ‘em that way,” one recent ad said, portraying Van Epps as a puppet.
That message turned out to have an expiration date. However, early voting began before Trump flipped positions on the House discharge petition, and this attack may have boosted Democrat turnout. Over 84,000 ballots have been cast in early voting, which ended on November 26. For comparison, TN-07 voters cast around 313,000 ballots a year ago in the presidential election, where Trump beat Kamala Harris by 22 points and Mark Green won 60/38 over his Democrat challenger. Given the low expectations for special elections, especially one right after the Thanksgiving holiday, Van Epps and Trump need a strong surge tomorrow to overcome what will likely be a healthy lead for Behn in those early-vote ballots.
Hence, Trump has used today to pull out all stops and to cast this as a mission for God and country, not to mention country music. The question will be whether this push – and the GOP's oppo-research reveals – came too late to overcome Democrats' head start in this special election. Let's hope TN-07 voters rescue country music tomorrow.
