The deal itself contains telling surprises. Those also constitute good reasons for skepticism. Now that the initial blush of joy over an apparent agreement to free the hostages, the question remains: Will Hamas comply? Or are we in for another round of the Hamas Hokey Pokey?
The terms of Donald Trump's ultimatum contain poison pills that Hamas had refused to accept over the last two years. First, it forces Hamas to release the hostages in a first stage (more on this in a moment), rather than at the end of a series of demands they had made for a ceasefire. This agreement does not require the full withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza first, or even at all in this phase. The requirement for Hamas to disarm remains, although that too is pushed off for later phases of a broader peace agreement.
This may not be the best outcome for Israel, but as the Jerusalem Post notes this morning, it's not all that far off:
Israel, Hamas, and the mediators have “aligned around” US President Donald Trump’s 20-point framework to end the Gaza war and bring the remaining captives home, a senior Israeli diplomatic figure involved in the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
The official described a shared mechanism and “good spirit” in the room.
“This is the best position we could be in,” the official said. “If Hamas returns the living and the bodies, the IDF will still be deployed inside Gaza, and the world will be with us. That gives Israel leverage.” ...
The official said the sequencing is clear. “Phase one is hostages home. Phase two is measurable steps toward demilitarization. If they start turning in weapons, we proceed. If not, we do not move forward.”
That sequence raises all sorts of questions about Hamas' intentions. The only leverage they had left were the hostages and international pressure on Israel. They briefly cheered the recognition of a Palestinian state by France and the United Kingdom, but quickly recognized that it had no practical effect on their situation. The IDF continued its assault on Gaza City, with Trump pushing Netanyahu to speed it up. It may be that Hamas leadership in Gaza City realized that they were out of options, and with their supply lines cut off and Iran humbled of late, things were not going to get much better.
Or, perhaps, this is nothing more than another spin on the dance floor to the Hamas Hokey Pokey. Hamas appears to already be making demands for a shift in phasing, especially when it comes to positioning the IDF. They claimed today that they cannot collect the hostages with the IDF in place:
Hamas official Osama Hamdan tells the Qatari Al-Araby TV channel that Israel will pull out militarily from all populated areas in Gaza — including Khan Younis, Rafah, and Gaza City. He says the withdrawal will take place tomorrow, since the release of hostages requires arrangements on the ground and freer movement for Hamas operatives, meaning Israel must retreat first.
Hamdan is cooling his heels in Doha, not in Sharm el-Sheikh, so he didn't participate in the talks. However, this fits with Hamas' rather desperate position, where the hostages are the only chits they have with which to bargain. This looks like an attempt by Hamas to hokey-pokey their way to having enough space to reorganize their fighting forces rather than a hostage-gathering mission. It fits with earlier "pauses" in the fighting as well, which resulted in recovery time and space for Hamas.
The other question is the lists of prisoners from the Israeli side. The Israelis are already refusing to release the bodies of Yahya and Mohammed Sinwar, the leaders of the October 7 massacres. Hamas wants Marwan Barghouti, one of the commanders of the Second Intifada, and some other senior leaders paroled from their multiple-life-sentences terms in Israeli prisons, but there has been no official word as to whether Israel will agree to that demand. Qatari sources claim that Barghouti will be freed:
Sources involved in the negotiations tell the Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Israel has agreed to free senior Fatah figure Marwan Barghouti, Popular Front leader Ahmad Sa’adat, and senior Hamas members Ibrahim Hamed and Hassan Salameh as part of a deal for the release of hostages in Gaza.
All four are serving multiple life sentences in Israeli prison for their roles planning terror attacks in which dozens of Israelis were killed, most of them during the Second Intifada.
Mahmoud Abbas may not be too anxious to see Barghouti freed:
Barghouti is thought to be a possible challenger to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s control of Ramallah.
Israel's Channel 12 claims that Israel has refused to release Barghouti, although that has not yet been confirmed. One has to wonder whether Abbas tried to ensure that rival stayed in prison, especially given the enmity between Fatah and Hamas. But this raises a question as to whether Hamas would either reject the exchange if Barghouti isn't included, or keep delaying it until Israel concedes, forcing the IDF to recover their previous positons.
And then there is the question of what happens next. Without its hostages, Hamas has little leverage to prevent their disarmament and likely expulsion from Gaza in favor of a pan-Arab caretaker force:
Peacekeeping troops, a legal framework and ensuring Hamas can no longer pose a danger will be discussed among international partners in Paris, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul says.
All three are necessary in the future as part of a plan for the Gaza Strip, he says.
True, but all three are anathema to Hamas, too, which still envisions itself as the power in Gaza. The situation may be roughly analogous to Lebanon, where Hezbollah finally agreed to withdraw from the sub-Litani and Bekaa Valley regions as a condition of a ceasefire but never fully complied. Israel continues to hammer Hezbollah positions in those areas, while Lebanon keeps trying to peel Hezbollah's fingers off of power in Beirut. Israel won't just sit around waiting for the Paris negotiators to flap gums while Hamas rearms and plans their next Al-Aqsa Flood massacre. And Hamas isn't likely to accept their dismantling from a group of Western diplomats, either.
All of these factors should keep observers and negotiators sharp, and at least somewhat skeptical. This is the first real step toward progress for the hostages in well over a year, but their freedom is not yet secured. Hamas has many ways to toss spanners in the works, and a track record of doing just that. If the polka music of the Hamas Hokey Pokey even plays for a bar or two, Trump had better be prepared to demonstrate a commitment to his red lines.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
Help us continue to report on the administration’s peace through strength foreign policy and its successes. Join Hot Air VIP and use promo code POTUS47 to get 74% off your VIP membership!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member