CNN, Quinnipiac: About That 2026 Blue Wave ...

Don't bet the rent money on that proposition, however. Even after a new CNN poll showed 60% of Americans oppose the OBBB, it's not exactly translating into Democrat gold at the moment. Harry Enten took a look yesterday at the generic-ballot numbers, as well as the trend in House pick-up numbers, and the news does not look good for Schumer or Jeffries -- at least for now:

Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.

Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.

Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025

ENTEN: Look, the bottom line is this. Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot. What are we talking about here? All right, the Democrats versus the Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, the margins. Look at where we are now. Democrats are ahead, but by just two points. Look at where Democrats were already ahead by in 2017. They were behind by seven points.

How about 2005 on the generic congressional ballot? Behind -- excuse me, ahead by seven points, ahead by seven points, and now they're only ahead by two points? Their lead is less than half, less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years, the year before the midterm election. Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point.

The numbers at RCP track pretty well with this, giving Democrats a 2.8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. The problem for them is that this measure historically underestimates actual results in midterm elections. Democrats need a lead of about five points to break even, so anything under that is a yellow flag. Another problem with this calculation is where the numbers hit, as Enten goes on to explain, because specific races matter:

ENTEN (on-camera): What happens when you go race by race? Well, it's the same idea. OK, House seat ratings with a GOP president like back in 2005 and, of course, 2017. More net pick-up seat chances. Well, last time around, look at that. Democrats were ahead by 33 seats. How about in 2005? Democrats were ahead by seven seats. What's going on right now? It's actually Republicans.

Actually, Republicans with more net pick-up chances at plus 12, according to the Cook Political Report, when you add in the likelihoods, the liens, and the toss-up races. So, it's not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005 pace. It's actually when it comes seat by seat, you see that at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pick-up opportunities. This doesn't look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018.

Furthermore, Democrats continue to have a blind spot when it comes to Trump's popularity -- and their own. Today, Enten also addressed that blinkered view. "Twitter/X is not reality," Enten quipped when reviewing the latest Qunnipiac poll (about which more in a moment):

🚨NEW: CNN's Harry Enten "SURPRISED" Trump's approval among GOP has *RISEN* amid Epstein backlash🚀

"Republicans who approve of Trump — look at our CNN poll. The prior one: 86%. The one out this week: 88% with Republicans."

"How about Quinnipiac? The prior poll: 87% approval… pic.twitter.com/2tjXM6KDUO

— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) July 17, 2025

The most recent RCP aggregate average puts Trump's job approval rating at -5.0, 45.5/50.5, historically pretty good for Trump and especially in relation to his 2018 midterm numbers. Three of the aggregated polls show double-digit deficits which are impacting this average: CNN, YouGov, and Quinnipiac, all of which normally tilt against Trump anyway. In all three, Trump still gets 40% or more approval. 

That's important to note, because Quinnipiac also surveyed voters about their assessment of Democrats in Congress, and ... well, they did worse than Trump. Much worse. In fact, Democrats hit their historic rock bottom:

Fewer than 2 in 10 voters (19 percent) approve of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job, while 72 percent disapprove and 10 percent did not offer an opinion. This is a record low since March 2009 when the Quinnipiac University Poll first began asking this question of registered voters.

Among Democrats, 39 percent approve of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job, while 52 percent disapprove and 9 percent did not offer an opinion.

Nearly twice as many approve of the job Republicans in Congress are doing, in contrast:

One-third of voters (33 percent) approve of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job, while 62 percent disapprove and 5 percent did not offer an opinion.

Among Republicans, 77 percent approve of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job, while 20 percent disapprove and 3 percent did not offer an opinion.

Now, these are not great numbers either, but did you notice the big difference between the two? Republicans are holding onto most of their base, despite the issues around the OBBB and the Epstein files. Democrats can't even get to 40% with their own voting base. When a majority of your own party denounces your performance, your party is in trouble come the next election cycle. 

It's still early, and these numbers will change over the next year or so. But if Democrats can't snap out of their TDS reverie and start addressing the fact that Trump and Republicans own the high ground on almost every issue that matters to voters at the moment, those changes may only make matters worse. 

Plus, here's a closing question: Just how much will the end of USAID and its spigot of cash to progressive NGOs here in the US matter in the next election cycle? Hmmmm.