A meeting shrouded in secrecy. Arcane policies and tenets under debate. The world holding its breath for a sign of agreement. 

The Vatican? Well, sure, but also Geneva. After rumors have hinted that China and the US had secretly begun feeling out a trade deal, the two governments have agreed to meet in Switzerland, under the auspices of Swiss officials. Donald Trump won't attend, but his two top trade officials will, according to Axios:

• The Trump administration confirmed in statements Tuesday that Bessant and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with their Chinese counterparts to discuss "economic" and "trade" matters during meetings this week in Geneva with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter and other officials.

What they're saying: "Economic security is national security, and President Donald J. Trump is leading the way both at home and abroad for a stronger, more prosperous America," Bessent said in a statement ahead of his arrival Thursday in Switzerland.

• "I look forward to productive talks as we work towards rebalancing the international economic system towards better serving the interests of the United States."

Notably absent from this report: Peter Navarro. Trump's protectionist-leaning adviser is similarly absent from the Wall Street Journal's report on the meeting as well. Bessent is seen as less of a doctrinaire tariff cardinal and more of a tariffs-as-leverage negotiator. Greer's track record as an attorney is in unfair trade practices, which means he may be the bad cop in this particular pairing. Greer was also part of the Trump I administration's team that created the tariffs on China the first time around, as well as the development of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement that Trump now considers insufficient. 

Navarro will still be at the White House, of course. However, it seems like Navarro is getting pushed further from these tariff talks, and that may mean that Trump is leaning more toward using tariffs as leverage rather than making them unchangeable policy.

The WSJ notes that Xi Jinping will have a senior official close to him match up with Bessent, raising some expectations for an eventual agreement. Greer will also meet his counterpart, who seems to be The Player to Be Named Later at the moment:

China’s Foreign Ministry said He Lifeng, China’s vice premier and leader Xi Jinping’s economic czar, would visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 and hold discussions with American officials. A ministry spokesman said Wednesday the U.S. requested the talks.

The Treasury Department confirmed Bessent’s travel plans to Switzerland to meet with the Chinese official in a Tuesday press release. A separate release from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said Greer would also be traveling to Switzerland to meet with his Chinese counterpart, without specifying whom he is meeting.

Bessent tried to tamp down any expectations of an immediate puff of white smoke from Geneva. Think of this as the getting-to-know-you stage, Bessent warned:

“On Saturday and Sunday, we will agree what we’re going to talk about,” Bessent said. “My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal.” Bessent will also meet with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter.

That would be a strange use of the time for the people involved. Typically, de-escalation takes place either between heads of state or lower-level diplomatic contacts. Furthermore, we have already seen clear evidence of de-escalation; both sides have sent up smoke signals in the form of significant tariff exemptions. Both sides have also dialed down the rhetoric somewhat over the last couple of weeks.  

Both sides are sending officials with presumably plenary authority to cut deals. That certainly will raise expectations that a deal would be close; in fact, it would be normal practice to avoid such public confabs until lower-level contacts created a framework on which a deal could be concluded. If all that comes from this Geneva conclave is some smoke with no fire, it will certainly look like a setback, no matter the intent.

In the meantime, though, we now have two conclaves to watch. And it's pretty easy to guess which one will be the most straightforward.

Addendum: Maybe someone at the White House should hire Bill Ackman.

What if @realDonaldTrump were to announce that China tariffs would immediately be reduced to 20% and then escalate thereafter by 0.5% per month for next 12 months, and then by 1% per month for the next 12 months, and then by 1.5% per month for the next 12 months and so on?

To…

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) May 6, 2025

To the extent that China modifies its unfair trade practices, the increases could stop and potentially be reversed depending upon the degree of improvement in its trade policies.  This approach would incentivize companies to relocate their supply chains from China while enabling them to continue to operate profitably during the transition. China would be incentivized to make a good deal with @realDonaldTrump as promptly as practicable while the risk of a dramatic shock to the US and global economies would be greatly reduced if not eliminated.

I believe 'shock and awe' was part of Trump's strategy. This is more of the slow-boiled-frog strategy, and it might not have paid off for months. But it's still good thinking, and could be a good negotiating position.