Fantasy Conclave can be fun and informative, when not taken too seriously. The mainstream media that barely covers the Catholic Church looooves to engage in tea-leaf reading to suss out how 135 electors will choose between 135 -- and maybe more -- potential candidates for Pope. They are usually very good at creating "short lists" out of thin air, based on nothing more than "that's a name I recognize from press coverage," and really good at generating cool graphics to go along with them. 

But Fantasy Conclave took a very strange turn at CBS last night. Reporting from St. Peter's Square, their reporter noted that the crowds for the viewing of Pope Francis' body lying in state in the basilica are much smaller than during the last funeral for a regnant pope 20 years ago. John Paul II had a much longer papacy -- 27 years -- and a more momentous role in world affairs, too. 

However, CBS' reporter seems to think that the cardinal-electors will use the turnstile count as a key point of discernment in their upcoming conclave:

Roughly 50,000 mourners visited Pope Francis’ body in the first 24 hours at St. Peter’s Basilica—just a tenth of the turnout for Pope John Paul II. The stark difference in crowds is prompting speculation about how it might influence the upcoming papal conclave and the future… pic.twitter.com/6sqHC5h2jB

— CBS News (@CBSNews) April 24, 2025

Ahem. CBS seems confused by the difference between a funereal viewing and an American political rally. And they seem equally confused about the nature of the Catholic Church. 

In the first place, this is the only "election" that the Catholic Church has. It exists to safeguard and evangelize the Gospel, the Scriptures, and the two-millennia-old body of teaching called the Magisterium, along with the sacraments. It does not do this by taking the temperature of the masses, and certainly not by turnstile count at St. Peter's Basilica. The Vatican's official form of government is itself an absolute monarchy, and the Cathollic Church is rather famously hierarchical. CBS seems to have confused it with congregationalism, writ impossibly large.  The cardinals are not elected by the people to represent them; 80% of them were appointed by the man whose body lies in state at the basilica.

That means less than people think, too. Will Pope Francis' legacy be part of their discernment? Possibly, but while conclaves are technically elections, they do not have 'campaigns,' nor do cardinals normally offer themselves up as candidates. An old saying about ambition in conclaves goes something like this: Enter a pope, exit a cardinal. This isn't a leadership election in the parliamentary sense, even if concerns and issues facing the church are just as real as those facing any democratic legislature.

Rather than count queues in St. Peter's Square, Crux's Joseph San Mateo went to an actual source to explain what happens in a conclave. Filipino Cardinal Pablo Virgilio David scoffed at the secular media's idea of conclaves and offered some good insight into how the process unfolds:

“There are no candidates in a conclave,” David, the bishop of Kalookan, told reporters on Tuesday after a Mass for the soul of Francis at the Kalookan Cathedral.

David dispelled the notion that the conclave is like a political election — a relevant metaphor because the Philippines is holding its midterm elections on May 12. “No one will give dole-outs. No one will put up tarpaulins. No one will mount a campaign,” the cardinal said.

“A conclave is a retreat. The cardinals will pray, and it is in the spirit of prayer that we will ask not whom we want to elect, but whom the Lord wants to succeed Pope Francis. That’s why we have a big moral and spiritual obligation to enter into the conclave, not in the spirit of politics but in the spirit of prayer for the continuity of the mission of the Church,” David said.

The first step isn't looking out at the crowds in the square to take their temperature toward the deceased pontiff, David explained. The first step is to get to know everyone else in the conclave, in order to build connections for the retreat:

In his interview with journalists on Tuesday, David said that since the conclave is a “retreat,” part of the cardinals’ duty is to discern by getting to know their fellow cardinals better.

One way by which they get acquainted with each other, according to David, is by writing each other personal letters.

In other words, no one's looking for popular sentiment, in their own dioceses or in Rome's. The idea that funeral turnout influences conclave outcomes is absurd. And the comparison of grief on that basis between John Paul II and Francis is frankly insulting. It would be akin to counting mourners at funerals in general and judging who was the better person by the number of butts in the seats. 

Also, for those who have not yet heard, Pope Francis' funeral will take place tomorrow morning at the Vatican. That will be very early in the morning here, but Relevant Radio® will carry it live with ongoing commentary starting at 3 am CT. I'll be guest hosting for Drew Mariani later this afternoon (3 pm ET), and more details will be announced then.