As the famed philosopher Charles Barkley once said, "If ifs and buts were beer and nuts, we'd all have one hell of a party."
The Sunni Arab nations in the Middle East have banded together to draft an alternative to Donald Trump's plan for Gaza, which basically consists of leveling the entire place and shipping in an entirely new population for a resort sector on the Mediterranean. Horrified by that but not 20 years of Hamas' genocidal wars against Israel, they have created a new plan under Egyptian leadership for a Gaza led by a multi-national coalition once Hamas is sidelined.
See the problem yet?
CNN has more, but not much more in terms of realistic plans:
A plan for Gaza formulated by Egypt would exclude Hamas from governance of the enclave once the war ends, a draft of the plan obtained by CNN shows.
The plan is expected to be discussed by Arab leaders meeting in Cairo in an emergency summit on Tuesday and will be presented to US President Donald Trump in the coming weeks, Jordanian official sources told CNN earlier.
Egypt is proposing the formation of an independent, technocratic Palestinian committee to rule Gaza for an interim 6-month period “under the umbrella of” the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA), whose members would have no affiliations to Palestinian factions, the document said.
This sounds like the classic South Park episode about "underpants gnomes." Their business plan consisted of three phases (NSFW):
- Collect underpants
- ?
- Profit!
Needless to say, this Egyptian plan has a huge Phase 2 problem. Just exactly how do Egypt and its partners plan to "exclude Hamas from governance"? Especially under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority, which can't even keep Hamas from forming cells in the West Bank and contending for power? There is a reason that Mahmoud Abbas is now serving the twenty-first year of his four-year term as president. Fatah doesn't dare hold another election, lest they lose office just as they did in Gaza.
Put aside the West Bank for now. How does Egypt propose to eject Hamas from Gaza? They keep interfering with Israel's efforts to accomplish that task, and Hamas refuses to go. In fact, they are making that very loudly clear in this very moment:
Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters the group rejects any attempt to impose projects or any form of non-Palestinian administration, or the presence of any foreign forces on Gaza Strip territory.
"We are keen for the success of the summit, and we hope that there will be a call to reject the displacement and to protect the right of our people in resisting the occupation and govern itself away from any custodianship and intervention," he added. ...
Since Hamas drove the Palestinian Authority out of Gaza after a brief civil war in 2007, it has crushed all opposition there. Supported by Iran, it built an extensive security apparatus and military organization around a vast network of tunnels, much of which Israel says it has now destroyed.
And much of which still remains, too. The main tunnels and connectors run under Gaza City, Khan Younis, and Rafah; their destruction would also require extensive topside destruction. Hamas will simply retreat to those tunnels while maintaining their grip on Gaza, and the Gazans will support them unless and until someone destroys Hamas once and for all. The Israelis would like to do that, after which they might welcome Egypt's consortium to rebuild whatever is left. But Hamas won't leave on its own, which means either the Israelis have to "exclude them from governance" on a permanent basis, or someone else will have to do it by waging war on them.
Israel might be able to pry Hamas' grip on popular support with their new action to cut off aid. That has already created tensions in Gaza between the terrorists and the populace, Reuters reports:
Israel’s block on deliveries into the war-stricken Gaza Strip has led to price increases and fears of food shortages, prompting punitive measures from the Hamas-run authorities against merchants, according to Hamas sources and witnesses.
Members of the Hamas-run police force were deployed in local markets across Gaza, asserting their presence on the ground despite a 15-month Israeli aerial and ground offensive against the Palestinian militant group.
They questioned and detained merchants, ordering them not to raise prices during a standoff over a ceasefire deal, and seized supplies that were later resold at lower prices, the four sources and witnesses said.
That might be popular in the short run with Gazans, but when the merchant class dries up, not so much. And when the aid cutoff really starts to impact daily food intake, Hamas may end up bearing the brunt of the anger that will create. That's precisely what Israel calculates too, and might be the only way short of complete destruction of Gaza to disconnect Hamas from its popular support. That may not work out, but at least it's a lot more rational than creating underpants-gnome strategies for a Hamas-less Gaza without any discussion of how Hamas disappears at all.
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