Too Dumb to Check: Democrats Urging Sotomayor to Retire Before Trump Takes Office

AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, File

This is a fun little leftover from yesterday morning, which is worth noting mainly for its source. CNN's Andy Kaczynski is a straight enough shooter to not make something like this up, and also to refrain from highlighting fringe remarks by 5-follower randos.

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So when Kaczynski says that he sees chatter about pressuring Sotomayor to retire, it's probably a legit thread on social media. An insane legit thread, but nonetheless ...

Again, taking this on face value, this is a very bad idea. Announcing her retirement doesn't mean Joe Biden can immediately replace her. It takes several weeks at a minimum to process a nomination -- and that assumes Biden has one in mind. Trump did manage to get Amy Coney Barrett confirmed in a month, so it's not unprecedented, but it's very unlikely for a couple of reasons. 

First, that 2020 effort to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg took place in mid-September to the end of October, when the Senate was in continuous session. A nomination today would take place in a Senate that will mainly be in recess for the rest of this session. Chuck Schumer could call the Senate back into session, but the holidays will make that difficult. Cocaine Mitch McConnell would still have some parliamentary tricks up his sleeve to slow things down, and it wouldn't take much in the abbreviated Thanksgiving-Christmas time frame.

But let's say Biden and Schumer can navigate that. They would still need 50 votes to confirm a new Supreme Court justice plus Harris as the tiebreaking vote. That would mean convincing Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to play along, at a point in time when they're looking for career opportunities elsewhere. They still might go along, if Biden selected someone moderate enough to get a couple of GOP votes, but they're not likely to go for a doctrinaire progressive. 

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Meanwhile, Senate Democrats running for re-election in 2026 in red-to-purple states would be looking over their shoulder while deciding whether to allow a defeated incumbent to sneak another justice on the Supreme Court in the immediate aftermath of a national rebuke. How would Jon Ossoff like to have to justify that in Georgia, for instance, where Kamala Harris lost by 120,000 votes yesterday? How about Mark Warner in Virginia, which turned out to be a lot closer than Democrats expected yesterday? Or Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, where Republican Kelly Ayotte just won her gubernatorial election by seven points over Joyce Craig? Gary Peters hasn't decided whether he'll run for another term in Michigan two years from now, but having seen his state go Republican in two of the last three presidential cycles, he's probably not keen on crossing up voters there. 

Having Sotomayor announce her retirement now would run the risk of any delay at all on finding a nominee and getting him/her properly vetted for a confirmation hearing. If they can't get it done before the end of this session, then the nomination has to be resubmitted to the next Senate ... you know, the one with all of the new Republicans running it. They can then dispense with the nomination to allow Trump to replace Sotomayor, the very possibility this scheme would seek to avoid. 

Better instead to wish Sotomayor at least four more years of continued good health. As should we all, of course.

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That's not the retirement question that interests me most after Trump's election to a second term, though. How long will it be after the start of the new session, assuming the GOP holds control of the other chamber, until this woman announces her retirement?

Democrats won't easily forgive her for pushing Biden off the ticket, and Pelosi absolutely despises Trump. Another two years in the minority as a celebrated back-bencher isn't going to suit her in this environment. I was actually surprised that she ran for another term at all -- and if she's not critical to holding a slim Democrat majority, she'll probably regret it quickly. The over-under on that would be Inauguration Day, and I'm taking the under. 

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David Strom 4:40 PM | December 10, 2024
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