Has the race changed that much since the assassination attempt on Donald Trump? Not as much as one might have guessed -- yet, anyway -- and perhaps not enough for people to assume a slam-dunk for Republicans. And certainly not enough yet for Joe Biden to give up on running for a second term, at least not on its own.

New data from Emerson shows Trump leading in every battleground state, ticking up slightly in the days since the Saturday attack. However, Biden only trails within the margin of error in most states, even as Trump has widened the battleground map:

In the July 15-16 national poll, 46% of registered voters support Trump, and 42% support Biden; 12% are undecided. There has been a two-point drop in Biden’s support since earlier this month, where 46% supported Trump, and 44% supported Biden. ...

When third-party candidates are added to the ballot test, Trump either maintains or extends his advantage in the national poll and 6 of 7 swing states. 

• Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2% 
• Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
• Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
• Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
• North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
• Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
• Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
• National: Trump 44%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.4 %

To be honest, a two-point shift in the national head-to-head after the assassination attempt on Saturday in the short run isn't much movement at all. It suggests that the electorate may not be malleable any longer. That's both good and bad for Biden, as it also suggests that he may not be able to catch up as the race hardens, but on the other hand, he's remaining in striking distance, where GOTV could make the race a toss-up.

That's also an argument when looking at these battleground state results, although not all of them are within the MoE. Trump leads in the 5-ways outside the MoE in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and most critically Pennsylvania, which would be an election-determining win for Trump in November if this one poll result turns out to be predictive. But Biden's within the MoE in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada, and isn't in collapse anywhere else except AZ. Biden trails, but he's not uncompetitive yet in any other state.

But in a separate poll, Emerson shows that Trump not only has added Virginia to the battleground map, he's leading slightly there as well among committed voters:

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Virginia voters finds 45% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support President Biden in a 2024 election. Eleven percent are undecided. When undecided voters are pushed to choose the candidate they lean toward, Trump and Biden’s overall support increases to 50% respectively. 

“In a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020, the president is now essentially tied with Trump,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Independent voters break for Trump, 46% to 38%, a group that broke for Biden in 2020 by double digits.”

“Trump also leads Biden among male voters by 12 points, expanding his lead among this group since 2020, while Biden leads among women by six points, a lesser margin than 2020.”

None of this is good news for Joe Biden. But at least so far, it's not catastrophic polling either. Biden's support may have eroded since the debate, but it hasn't cratered, and in most places he's still in or close to virtual ties with Trump. That it itself is surprising, considering (a) the absolute exposure of his cognitive decline at the June 27 debate and (b) the full-court press by fellow Democrats to push him into withdrawing ever since. If Biden's only losing a couple of points in the polls while fellow Democrats demand his exit, that suggests a lot more resilience than many of us figured.

Will that continue? Axios reports this morning that Democrats are now leaking their expectation that Biden will withdraw, which appears based on nothing except their own desires:

Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend. ...

The private message, distilled to its bluntest form: The top leaders of his party, his friends and key donors believe he can't win, can't change public perceptions of his age and acuity, and can't deliver congressional majorities.

The president is being told that if he stays in, former President Trump could win in a landslide and wipe away Biden's legacy and Democrats' hopes in November.

That's the same message since June 28, and it hasn't budged Biden from his firm determination to remain the nominee. Furthermore, Biden knows that the clock is on his side. If he ignores these calls for another three weeks, Democrats are stuck with him, and they will have to rally back to his side -- donors and Protection Racket Media, too. The circular firing squad will do an about-face and start focusing on Trump instead of Biden. That might get him enough of a polling bump to compete in most of these battleground states, although Biden would have to win almost all of them in November to prevail. 

So unlike Duane, I don't expect Biden to budge at all. The Bidens' family business model is based on their connection to power, and that would end within 60 seconds of a Biden withdrawal. Furthermore, Biden has always had delusions of adequacy and clearly sees himself as the only one capable of stopping Trump.  These poll numbers certainly won't convince him otherwise. 

Update: And the only legit alternative is not much of an improvement either, according to Interactive Polls.

PA Trump 47 Harris 40
NV Trump 50 Harris 40
AZ Trump 48 Harris 42

— Chris (@chriswithans) July 18, 2024