The kitchen-sink indictment from Fani Willis in Fulton County, Georgia certainly expands the legal threats Donald Trump faces. Will it also increase his political strength, as happened with Alvin Bragg’s politically motivated indictment over the Stormy Daniels payoff in March? Or has that market tapped itself out?

It has become an article of faith that each indictment strengthens Trump politically in the GOP nomination race. That isn’t quite true, in terms of polling, as the RCP aggregate-average chart demonstrates. The Bragg indictment, with its bare-faced political intent, certainly had that effect in March and April, but Trump hasn’t shown much benefit from the Jack Smith federal indictments. Of course, he hasn’t exactly suffered from them either, at least in polling:

Will the Fulton County indictment change these trajectories — in either direction? If one thinks of the polling at this stage as a kind of stock market, it seems unlikely. The Fani Willis effort has been well known for months, as were the general charges that would likely result. The ‘market’ may not have anticipated an indictment this broad, but other than the list of defendants, there probably are no surprises. It’s baked into the cake already.

Furthermore, there’s enough chaff in this indictment for Trump supporters to justifiably criticize it as a political maneuver rather than a sincere law-enforcement effort. That’s especially true of Act 22 in the RICO charge (Count 1), which cites a tweet from Trump promoting OANN’s coverage of legislative hearings in Georgia, but it’s also true of several other counts regarding public statements and claims about the election:

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Those less inclined to support Trump will focus on the more substantial parts of the indictment, especially the fake-elector scheme and attempts to pressure officials into allegedly violating their oaths of office. Those allegations have to be proven in court, of course, but voters can judge these events politically in terms of the nomination and general election in the meantime.

All of this seems like a wash at this point, much as the Jack Smith indictments proved to be. For those inclined to stick with Trump, it’s confirmation that politicized lawfare must be resisted by renominating and electing Trump. For others in the GOP, it’s yet more baggage Trump will carry into the next election cycle — baggage that already spoiled the midterm election cycle last year and promises to do worse in a presidential general election. If this indictment has any significant political effect, it’s probably that it will further entrench these positions.

In other words, it’s a stalemate at the moment, and that’s not good news for the GOP. Jim Geraghty warns about that in NRO today, although he knows that he seems to be whistling in the wind, at least for now:

Whether your preferred measuring stick is U.S. adults, registered voters, and likely voters – a majority of Americans don’t like Trump, they see January 6 as a national embarrassment, scandal, and disgrace, and they are unlikely to be persuaded that Trump is an innocent victim who broke no laws and who is being framed by malevolent prosecutors. Those who contended the 2020 presidential election was stolen lost just about every competitive race in the 2022 midterms; those who won were either well-known incumbents or in safely GOP states or districts. In the races for governor, secretary of state, and U.S. Senate, in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Michigan and Nevada, voters heard the stolen election arguments and rejected the candidates making them.

It is exceptionally unlikely that sometime between now and November 2024, many Americans change their minds about Trump and conclude he’s the most unjustly persecuted American man since Richard Kimble.

All of this makes the election of Donald Trump in 2024 extremely improbable.

Just how entrenched is this, though? It’s still too early to tell what long-term effect any of this will have. We have not yet even had the first debate in the primary, and it’s five months until the first caucus and primary. Most voters appear to be standing on their starting positions for now, which is understandable while the campaign remains in its preliminary stages and no one has to make a truly firm decision for a long while yet.

With that in mind, there are four potential inflection points over the next few months that might disrupt the entrenchment:

In the meantime, Trump will do his best to stoke anger among Republicans over the latest indictment. As I wrote the post, Trump announced a press conference six days from now to respond to the Willis indictment:

That seems like a long delay for a substantive response, and perhaps a risky move in setting expectations for a “report.” If Trump had an argument to refute the charges, one would expect that to be made in court first. Perhaps it will be, sometime this week, but we’ve heard similar promises before along these lines about Dominion, missing ballots, etc.

It still reminds us, though, that these issues will play out over months, not minutes. The primary fight hasn’t really begun in earnest yet. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, the latest episode of The Ed Morrissey Show podcast is now up! Today’s show features:

The Ed Morrissey Show is now a fully downloadable and streamable show at  Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the TEMS Podcast YouTube channel, and on Rumble and our own in-house portal at the #TEMS page!