I know where I’m betting, and David’s post earlier today pretty much sums that up. Today’s Washington Post wants to reassure us, however, that Joe Biden’s physical and mental health not only remains strong now but should hold up for the next six years. In fact, both Biden and Donald Trump are identically situated in terms of their health status, their experts conclude, and are likely to perform at their current levels if either of them win a second term in the White House.

No, really:

Biden has already outlived about 59 percent of American-born men in his age cohort, while former president Trump has outlived 47 percent of his cohort, according to an analysis of Social Security Administration data for people born in the 1940s by University of Pennsylvania professor Samuel Preston.

As the oldest major party front-runners in American history — even with demanding schedules — they both remain physically capable. Both candidates have recent passing reports from their physicians and partake in healthy living habits — no smoking, no drinking, no hazardous labor.

Actuarial tables suggest they are far more likely than not to live through a second term if elected, and experts in aging say there is little reason to doubt their continued health during that time, given the enormous benefits of their socioeconomic status, including access to high-quality health care.

First off, let’s dispense with one obvious problem in this analysis — equating Biden and Trump. The two rivals may be close in age, but are miles apart in energy and extemporaneous performance. Trump regularly holds rallies in which he stalks the stage and mainly ad-libs speeches for close to an hour. Biden nearly falls asleep reading note cards from his lap, as David noted in Biden’s meeting with Israeli president Isaac Herzog:

Someone please check on the President. Seriously. #Biden pic.twitter.com/GQ9otIxU02

— HARRISFAULKNER (@HARRISFAULKNER) July 18, 2023

Whether one likes Trump or not, whether one supports Biden or not, no one can seriously argue that the energy, stamina, and competence levels of these two men are similar at all. In fact, on those points as on others, Trump and Biden are nearly polar opposites. The Post equates them as a means to argue that age shouldn’t be a consideration for Biden, but that ignores the actual question. Trump does face an issue with his age and the potential for decline; Biden is declining before our very eyes. It’s no longer an argument about age and potentiality, but about Biden’s performance now.

The White House knows this, too. They have kept Biden away from reporters as much as possible, far more so than any other modern administration. They are now changing the rules for “hard pass” access to the briefing room too, which will have the effect of limiting or outright eliminating conservative-media reporters. Their news “caps” come much earlier in the day than previous presidencies, too. Biden’s handlers can’t always keep him in tightly controlled appearances, however, and Biden routinely gets lost on stage, lost in his remarks, and as we saw yesterday, can’t even reliably remain coherent with note cards in his hand.

The Post’s analysis tries mightily to avoid accounting for the accumulating evidence in plain sight. Their “experts” don’t discuss actual performance, but instead rely on an actuarial approach to conclude that we have no reason to doubt Biden’s abilities. The article goes on at length about demographics and the impact of improved health care, diet, exercise, and medication. The problem is that voters don’t choose a demographic — they vote for individuals. And this individual keeps demonstrating cognitive and physical decline almost every time he makes a public appearance.

Finally, this argument hardly seems sincere even in a general sense. The presidency is a 24/7 job, a difficult role for even the most energetic of people. Normally the media points this out routinely, especially when a younger Democrat contends for the presidency. Remember all the media swooning over Robert O’Rourke’s bid in 2019 and his “Kennedy-esque” qualities? That was not only a nod to his looks but to his youth as a contrast to Trump as well as Biden. This smells like a reverse engineering of a rationalization for supporting an elderly and failing incumbent for a second term, and it uses Trump to provide some cover for its rather threadbare political motives.

Both parties need to think about this issue. The first party to offer someone with youth and vigor as well as competency will likely win the election. But that issue is much more acute for Democrats as they struggle to convince us that we should believe them rather than our own lyin’ eyes about Decrepit Joe.