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Mar-a-Lago Prison Blues 2024? The Amiable Skeptics featuring Adam Baldwin!

Just how much legal trouble will Donald Trump find himself over the next 18 months? “After seeing the Proud Boys convicted,” Adam Baldwin predicts, “I think they’re gonna send Trump to prison” if they can. “They’re going to go after Trump on these charges, and they’re going to convict him in those local courts.” Not so fast, I argue — the Manhattan criminal case is a house of cards and the special counsel probes don’t appear to be moving much. The indictment in Fulton County may be a bigger problem, but will that slow down Trump’s 2024 campaign — or provide it with rocket fuel? Jeff Goldstein’s essay on lawfare and other issues gets some prominent mention in today’s episode …

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Welcome back to our VIP video series “The Amiable Skeptics,” featuring my friend Adam Baldwin! Adam is well-known for his long and storied Hollywood career, starting with My Bodyguard, and especially for his roles in Full Metal Jacket, Firefly, its film sequel SerenityChuck, and The Last Ship.

Did Trump miss an opportunity to put an end to the lawfare strategy in E. Jean Carroll’s lawsuit? “Trump missed an opportunity to to stand up like Kavanaugh did,” Adam says, “and face his accusers in the court of in the court of law.” Trump planned to appeal all along, Adam concedes, and so probably didn’t take the proceedings seriously enough. “I saw Kavanaugh’s testimony when he he was defending his honor and his good name, and I believed him,” he continues.

I think there’s ample cause for appeal in the Carroll lawsuit, not least of which is on a fair-trial basis. “It was improper to allow a waiver of the statute of limitations,” I say, “especially in a case where the allegation is so ambiguous that it’s just impossible for someone to defend themselves against it.” With that said, though, there’s no un-ringing the bell when it comes to the jury decision, which stated outright that they believed Trump committed sexual assault. “The problem is that the jury clearly believed her and didn’t believe him,” I point out, “and an appellate court [reversal] is not going to undo that. And that’s why you don’t want to lose in the first place.”

Both of us agree that the special counsel probes on January 6 and the classified-material allegations are likely to go nowhere. For both of us, the real action will be in Fulton County, Georgia, where DA Fani Willis is clearly preparing to indict Trump. “There is an overt act,” I say, of “allegedly trying to interfere with the outcome of an election. Trump called Brad Raffensberg and told him to go find 13,000 votes. Now you can spin that all you want,” I continue, “but this is a reason why you don’t want someone on the phone doing something like this — especially when it’s the candidate himself — because it’s really stupid. And it puts you at risk of being charged with trying to corrupt an election.” And as Jeff Goldstein noted in his excellent essay on lawfare last week, the venue practically guarantees a jury will take the worst possible interpretation of that call and convict, assuming the case gets that far.

But will that actually stop Trump from getting the GOP nomination — or will the full-court lawfare press inspire voters to rally around him? Will there be an Obi-Wan Kenobi effect? Adam and I discuss that and much more. Be sure to watch the whole show and join the conversation in the comments!

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