“This is a huge victory for Moscow over Washington,” former national security director John Bolton declared this morning on CBS. “It endangers other Americans in the future, who can be grabbed and used by bargaining chips,” he said of the swap of Brittney Griner for Viktor Bout, one of the world’s most dangerous men before his arrest and conviction.

Bolton also revealed in this clip that the Trump administration had an offer to trade Paul Whelan for Bout two years ago. They passed, and as Bolton says, “for very good reasons” (via Caleb Howe at Mediaite):

The 1-for-1 prisoner swap of Brittney Griner and Viktor Bout between the U.S. and Russia was a "very bad mistake," former Trump admin. National Security Adviser Amb. John Bolton says, calling it a "victory for Moscow over Washington."

"It endangers other Americans in the future" pic.twitter.com/ZwFFFaQKPJ

— CBS News (@CBSNews) December 8, 2022

Anne-Marie Green: Of course, you know, the reporting is — and I think it’s pretty obvious — I don’t think I have to say the reporting is that Brittney Griner was overcharged, that she was charged sort of akin to a drug trafficker to at least make it seem on paper like these two prisoners were equal. Can you tell me what you know about Viktor Bout and why the Russians would want him back so badly?

John Bolton: Well, I really can’t get into specifics, but I’ll just note that Paul Whelan, who was likewise set up by the Russians back in late 2018, so when I was at the White House, is still in custody. And I’ll just note the historical fact that the possibility of a Bout for Whelan trade existed back then, and it wasn’t made, for very good reasons having to deal with Viktor Bout.

But this is a huge victory for Moscow over Washington. And it’s the kind of thing that says to terrorists and rogue states and other malign actors who would consider kidnapping or seizing Americans, that we’re willing to trade almost anything to get Americans back. There are other ways to deal with hostage-takers through sanctions and other things, not swaps like this one.

Why didn’t the Trump administration agree to swap Bout? The so-called Merchant of Death still represents a massive threat to the US and its allies if he decides to go back into arms trafficking and supporting terror groups like FARC in South America, and reportedly the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the Middle East, not to mention terror networks in Africa and Asia. Bout’s age has been tough to pin down, but the best estimate is that he’s in his mid-50s — so he hasn’t aged out of the business.

And as Politico Pro reports today, even Biden administration officials worry that Bout will pick up where he left off after getting arrested in 2008:

Some Pentagon officials are concerned that convicted Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who was released on Thursday in a prisoner swap for American basketball star Brittney Griner, could return to illegally trafficking weapons, potentially fueling conflicts across the world.

While officials in the Pentagon applauded Griner’s release, some are worried about the impact of Bout’s return, particularly in Africa. Bout, nicknamed the “Merchant of Death,” was serving a 25-year prison sentence in the United States on charges of conspiring to kill Americans, delivery of anti-aircraft missiles, and aiding a terrorist organization.

“I think there is a concern that [he] would return to doing the same kind of work that he’s done in the past,” said one senior Defense Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.

This isn’t an issue of partisanship, either. Senate Foreign Relations chair and New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez called the swap that released Bout both unbalanced and “deeply disturbing“:

“To be clear, Ms. Griner should have been released immediately and unconditionally a long time ago. Putin has known that all along. This should be a moment of deep reflection for the United States government to recognize we have a serious problem with hostage-taking of Americans. The Russians and other regimes that take American citizens hostage cannot pretend that there is equivalence between the Brittney Griners of the world and people like Viktor Bout, the so-called ‘Merchant of Death.’ Nothing could be further from the truth, and we cannot ignore that releasing Bout back into the world is a deeply disturbing decision. We must stop inviting dictatorial and rogue regimes to use Americans overseas as bargaining chips, and we must try to do better at encouraging American citizens against traveling to places like Russia where they are primary targets for this type of unlawful detention.[“]

That sounds a lot like John Bolton’s position, no?

One can understand why a Bout-for-Whelan swap would have interested either administration. Whether Whelan worked for US intelligence or not, their alleged crimes were at least categorically similar, even if their threat potential differed greatly. However, a trade of Bout for Griner is so far from parity that it almost seems like parody.

And the Russians have taken note, too:

A former adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday the prisoner swap that sent Brittney Griner back to the US in exchange for arms dealer Viktor Bout was a win for Moscow — and made America look weak.

“Putin outplayed Biden,” Sergei Markov wrote in a scathing post on his Telegram channel.

“We got back our spy, it seems, and gave away a normal girl,” he added.

Trading Bout for Whelan probably would be a win for Russia anyway, but this is a Bout rout. As Bolton points out, it demonstrates “just how desperate the administration was to make this deal.” Terror groups and warlords just got their arms supply bolstered, and the world got that much more dangerous — and the US didn’t get anything strategic or equitable in return.

Duane Patterson and I discussed the swap this morning for the latest episode of The Ed Morrissey Show podcast, shortly after it got announced. We discussed the strange bargain, raised some questions that other politicians in both parties are now also raising, and more:

• Duane Patterson and I discuss the ramifications of this deal and especially in who got left out — Paul Whelan.
• We also discuss Duane’s new VIP column on the lessons of the midterms, as well as the New York Times walkout.

The Ed Morrissey Show is now a fully downloadable and streamable show at  Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the TEMS Podcast YouTube channel, and on Rumble and our own in-house portal at the #TEMS page!