Say, remember when Democrats claimed that they were turning Texas blue? Recall when they hailed Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke as a “closer“? Still have the receipts over the cascade of outside money that was supposed to frighten the Texas GOP in this midterm cycle?

Yee. And may I add … haw, as in hawhawhawhawhawhaw. 

The latest U-Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows Abbott’s lead over O’Rourke has more than doubled since their last poll seven weeks ago:

With in-person early voting set to begin in Texas on October 24, the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke in the gubernatorial race, 54%-43%, among Texans likely to vote in the 2022 election. While more than half of Republican voters say immigration and border security is the most important issue area informing their vote, Democratic voters’ attention is divided among a list of several issues, topped by abortion.

Seven weeks ago, Abbott had a five-point lead in this polling series, which prompted the usual buzz about Democratic traction in a red state:

Gov. Greg Abbott leads his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 5 percentage points, according to a new poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

The survey found that Abbott received 45% of support among registered voters, while 40% supported O’Rourke and 4% supported third-party candidates. Three percent of respondents named “Someone else” as their choice, and 8% said they have not thought about the race enough to have an opinion.

The result is almost identical to the margin from when the pollsters last surveyed the race in June, finding Abbott ahead of O’Rourke 45% to 39%.

So … what happened to Beto the Closer? The question may be what happened to the UT/Tribune poll series. This and the other major Academia-based pollster University of Houston have consistently rated this race a lot more narrowly than other pollsters in the field. U-Houston started reporting larger leads for Abbott in early August, while media-based pollsters such as those at the Dallas Morning News and KHOU had Abbott up by double digits by early September. UT/Tribune’s just showing up a little late to the party.

By the way, it’s not just the gubernatorial race that’s not turning blue, either. In every statewide race, it’s Democrats singing the blues:

Lt. Governor. Incumbent Dan Patrick led Democratic challenger Mike Collier, 51%-36%, in their rematch of the 2018 race.

Attorney General. Incumbent Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat Rochelle Garza 51%-37%.

Comptroller of Public Accounts. Two-term incumbent Republican Glenn Hegar leads Democrat Janet Dudding 47%-35%.

Agriculture Commissioner. Incumbent Sid Miller leads Democrat Susan Hayes 51%-39%.

Land Commissioner. Republican State Senator Dawn Buckingham leads Democrat Jay Kelberg 47%-36%.

Every statewide race in this poll has the Republican candidate up by double digits. In that sense, the race is remarkably stable in a reliably red state; we could even go so far as to call it predictably reliable.

And that prompts the final questions arising from the polling in the Lone Star State: What made Democrats think they were turning Texas blue? And why did so many donors outside of Texas get suckered into believing it and flooding Beto with bucks for a third futile election campaign?