So much for the stall in gas prices last month, eh? Even with the price of gasoline dropping 4.9% in the month of September, overall consumer prices rose by 0.4% in the month, the highest increase since June. The new Consumer Price Index year-on-year result shows inflation still roaring at 8.2%, and rising gas prices this month promise even more roaring into the fall:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the monthly seasonally adjusted all items increase. These increases were partly offset by a 4.9-percent decline in the gasoline index. The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. The energy index fell 2.1 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the natural gas and electricity indexes increased.

So-called “core CPI” rose again as well, and even faster. Shelter costs drove this area of inflation hardest:

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in September, following an identical increase in August. The shelter index continued to increase, rising 0.7 percent in September, also the same as in August. The rent index rose 0.8 percent in September. The owners’ equivalent rent index also increased 0.8 percent over the month, the largest monthly increase in that index since June 1990. The index for lodging away from home fell 1.0 percent over the month.

Core CPI ignores the way that most consumers experience inflation, however — at the grocery store. Food inflation continues to outpace other areas, and just as in yesterday’s PPI report, look astounding:

The food index increased 0.8 percent in September, the same increase as August. The food at home index rose 0.7 percent in September as all six major grocery store food group indexes increased. The index for fruits and vegetables rose 1.6 percent, while the index for cereals and bakery products rose 0.9 percent over the month. The index for other food at home increased 0.5 percent in September, after rising 1.1 percent in August. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.4 percent over the month while the index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.6 percent in September. The dairy and related products index rose 0.3 percent in September, the same increase as the previous month.

The food away from home index rose 0.9 percent in September, as it did in August. The index for full service meals increased 0.4 percent and the index for limited service meals increased 0.6 percent over the month. The food at employee sites and schools index rose 44.9 percent in September, reflecting the expiration of some free school lunch programs.

The food at home index rose 13.0 percent over the last 12 months. The index for cereals and bakery products increased 16.2 percent over the year and the index for dairy and related products rose 15.9 percent. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 9.0 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs) to 15.7 percent (other food at home).

The index for food away from home rose 8.5 percent over the last year. The index for full service meals rose 8.8 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for limited service meals rose 7.1 percent over the same period.

This is not an “inch” of inflation, as Joe Biden claimed last month. Consumers are losing yards every month in buying power.

Let’s go to the charts. First, the month-on-month figures show that whatever benefit Biden got from a drop in gas prices had already come to an end — and that was before gas prices began going up this month:

The gas-price plateau made the year-on-year numbers look a little better, but not by much — and not for long, either. Note the trend line on core CPI to figure out what direction this will take as gas prices rise again:

Even the overall year-on-year CPI figure hasn’t changed a lot this year. It’s above 8% for the seventh straight month, even without gas prices goosing it upward. Small wonder Biden wants to release 10 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — and why he’s so sore at the Saudis for cutting OPEC+ production by two million barrels a day. (I will have more on that in a later post.)

CNBC econ reporter Jeff Cox notes that the results were worse than expected, and also that the Fed’s monetary tightening hasn’t shown much effect yet. Worse yet, the erosion of buying power/wages has accelerated:

Prices consumers pay for a wide variety of goods and services rose more than expected in September as inflation pressures continued to weigh on the U.S. economy.

The consumer price index for the month increased 0.4% for the month, more than the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a 12-month basis, so-called headline inflation was up 8.2%, off its peak around 9% in June but still hovering near the highest levels since the early 1980s. …

The rising costs meant more bad news for workers, whose average hourly earnings declined 0.1% for the month on an inflation-adjusted basis and are off 3% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS release.

What will the White House spin be today on these numbers? “It could be worse”? “It’s Putin’s fault”? “It’s two inches”?

Whatever their spin, no one’s buying it any longer. No one can afford to buy it any longer. The Fed will likely escalate their war on inflation, and the demolition of the economy under Joe Biden’s demand-stimulus economics will continue apace until someone else puts supply-side policies in place to halt inflation and provide real growth — especially in oil and natural gas.

Update: Let’s take a look at the year-on-year numbers in this report, courtesy of CNN’s Ryan Struyk:

Annual inflation via BLS just out:

42.9% airline fares
33.1% utility gas
30.5% eggs
18.2% gasoline
17.2% chicken
15.7% coffee
15.2% milk
14.7% bread
10.1% furniture
9.2% vegetables
8.2% all items
8.2% fruit
8.1% ham
7.6% women apparel
7.2% used cars
6.7% rent
3.7% men apparel

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) October 13, 2022

The monthly numbers are just as bad:

Monthly food inflation is astounding, as in yesterday's PPI:

Cereal & bakery products: 0.9%
Meat, eggs: 0.4%
Fruits & veggies: 1.6%!
Food away from home: 0.9%

This is not an "inch." For working families, it's becoming a mile. https://t.co/ukdFRK8y5l

— Ed Morrissey (@EdMorrissey) October 13, 2022

Oh, by the way, here is the data on wages Jeff Cox noted at the end of his report:

Real average hourly earnings are falling again, down 0.1 percent month over month in September. They'd been rising in July & August on the back of falling gas prices, but today's hot CPI print pushed real earnings down again.

Source: https://t.co/uIZgg4DGJY pic.twitter.com/ZU4Y59sEvw

— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) October 13, 2022

I’ll update with more as developments warrant.