Democrats think they’ve found a midterm miracle in the Dobbs decision, while Republicans think the Supreme Court has given them a grand opportunity to stamp out abortion nationwide. If this result from the June Harvard-Harris poll holds up, though, both parties will miss the mark — but especially Democrats.
Yesterday, for instance, Joe Biden continued to insist that women will drive the elections back to a full restoration of the pre-Dobbs status quo. He told reporters that women should keep protesting and supporting candidates that back a federal law that “restores Roe v Wade“:
Is that really what women want, however? Is that what Democrat voters want? Not according to the Harvard-Harris poll taken in June, when the issue of abortion became most acute. In a survey taken just days after Dobbs decision, only 28% of respondents believed that abortions should be allowed after 15 weeks, two months earlier than the “viability” standard established in Roe and strengthened in Casey.
That number only climbs to 40% among Democrats and 25% among women:
Interestingly, voters appear confident — at least instinctively — that states will settle abortion along their own views. There is almost no change between what voters think should happen with abortion restrictions and what they believe their states will eventually implement. That in itself is noteworthy, especially for those who foresee a civil war coming out of the abortion issue. It looks like voters feel confidence in their democratic institutions, even if those who lead them are currently freaking out.
Even more notable, however, is the gap between Democratic Party leadership and their own rank and file. For the last several years, Joe Biden and other party leaders have defined Roe as unlimited access to abortion at any stage of pregnancy. The bill pushed by Chuck Schumer and endorsed by Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden after the leak of the Dobbs draft in May would have enshrined that policy at the federal level — after Schumer, Pelosi, and Biden rejected a more moderate proposal that would have kept the “viability” threshold for state limitations. That extreme position is only supported by 11% of Americans, 10% of women, and 15% of Democrats. It’s as politically extreme as it gets.
Even the 23-week limit — which is a direct translation of the “viability” limit in Roe, accurate or not — turns out to be relatively unpopular. We already see the combined numbers for Democrats (40%) and women (25%) for that position, but here are a few other results in the demos:
- Overall for 23-week limits: 28%
- Hispanic voters: 31%
- Black voters: 35%
- Self-described moderates: 30%
- Urban voters: 38%
- Suburban voters: 29%
Even the age-bearing demos don’t reflect this Democratic extreme. Among 18-34 year olds, only 16% support unlimited access to abortion, and only 24% more support access to 23 weeks. The results are worse among 35-49YOs — 8% support abortion to nine months and another 21% support access to 23 weeks. There is no majority support for the Roe regime even among Democrats and their key demos, so … who are they talking to?
That question is a little easier to answer for Republicans, but not by much. If one had to pick an option that had the most support in this poll, it would be that abortion should be legal only in cases of rape or incest. That plurality, however, is only 37% — bigger than the combined viability-to-unlimited 28%, but hardly a majority. This all-but-banned option gets majorities in a few demos, Republican voters (55%) and self-described conservatives (57%) being among them. However, it only gets 18% support among Hispanics, 30% among black voters, 32% among independents, 37% among both men and women, and so on. At least Republican leadership is talking to its base at the moment, unlike Democratic leadership, but they’re not speaking much outside of it. They’d be better advised to stop talking and let Democrats shoot themselves in their electoral foot.
By far the most popular combination is to limit abortion to 15 weeks. That gets 72% of the overall electorate and easy majorities in ever single demo. A six-week limit gets close, but it’s only supported by 49% overall. One can expect — even if one can lament this, as I do — that states will eventually settle around a 15-week policy as the democratic process unfolds. There will be more conditions than before, such as parental notification, licensing and inspections, and so on, but this poll shows the rough parameters of an eventual settlement of the question.
So why aren’t Democrats jumping on this idea? Their activist base and progressive wing won’t allow it. Biden, Schumer, and Pelosi are either clueless or being forced to adopt the most extreme position possible, the one that has the least amount of popular support, and promise to stuff it down everyone’s throat. They want the midterm elections fought on that basis, too. Biden wants people to vote for activists who wish to ignore popular sentiment — heck, he’s even asking women to vote on the basis of a position that seventy-five percent of them oppose.
Democrats may indeed get that wish. And they can’t claim to be surprised when they see the results of that wish.
