Where is the floor for Joe Biden? We don’t yet know, at least not in the latest Civiqs tracking poll published yesterday. Paul Bedard caught the new low of 32% job approval rating in the Washington Examiner, and notes that disapproval is starting to look pretty bipartisan (via Instapundit):
The latest Civiqs approval rating hit 32%, with 56% disapproving of the president. Even Democrats are expressing frustration, with their approval rate at a low 69%, according to the data.
At this stage of his presidency, Donald Trump was in better shape though also underwater with voters in the same Civiqs survey, at 44% approval, 52% disapproval, numbers he rarely broke from.
Recent presidents have all had very temporary low approval ratings below 30%, according to Gallup, but they didn’t stay there. Biden’s trend line, however, has been steadily down in the Civiqs survey since May 20, 2021.
The chart below shows how steady the decline has been even as far back as March, when Biden got a mild bump upward in the post-SOTU period. Even that only lifted Biden to a high of 38% approval, but it’s literally been downhill from that poor showing ever since:
We’ll get to the demos on overall job approval shortly, but first let’s look at voter perceptions of the economic direction Biden has created. Biden and his White House team felt happy to give Biden personal credit when American voters felt a surge of optimism in the first few months of his administration, but ever since they’ve been flailing around looking for a scapegoat. It’s not difficult to see why:
In April 2021, 37% of respondents thought the economy was improving while 40% felt the economy was getting worse. Fourteen months later, only 9% believe the economy is improving while 74% think it’s getting worse. That’s a sixty-two point flip in the gap in just over a year. Every demo — every single one — believes that the economy is getting worse. The only demo not to have a majority with that view is Democrats, and even then it’s a near-majority 48%, with only seven percent believing that the economy is improving. Among black voters, it’s 6/52, and Hispanics are 4/70. The best age demo for Bidenomics is seniors, and they score 3/69. That not a typo — that’s three percent of seniors.
It’s not quite as bad on Biden’s overall job approval in the demos, but even there Democrats and black voters are the only demos that give Biden positive approval (69% and 59%, respectively). Neither of those are impressive in terms of their portents for midterm enthusiasm, and the 20% disapproval among black voters should set off sirens in the DNC and DCCC. The 59/21 approval rating among black voters is the lowest of Biden’s presidency, and likely the lowest of any Democratic president since the end of the Civil Rights Movement.
Even those demos without majority disapproval are highly problematic for Democrats in this cycle. Hispanics disapprove 41/45 and “other” ethnicities 39/49, both categories on which Democratic candidates heavily rely. Female voters disapprove even more sharply, 37/49, wiping out the “gender gap” that Democrats had hoped to exploit with the Dobbs decision and abortion after next week. Even with the White House and Democratic leaders flogging the Supreme Court over a potential overturn of Roe, Biden’s fallen over the past seven weeks since the Dobbs leak among women from 39/48 at the start of May. In fact, among the childbearing age demos for women, Biden’s at 26/49 and 35/49; he actually does best among senior women, 45/48. Abortion isn’t moving the needle at all.
As James Carville famously advised, “It’s the economy, stupid.” And in this case, it’s the stupid economic policies, especially on energy, that will drown Biden and Democrats in a red wave this November.