The last time we looked at the Civiqs series in early April, Joe Biden had slid down to 38% job approval and was above water in only four states. Only three states gave Biden a majority approval level. Nearly eight weeks later, the longitudinal survey now shows Biden at 34% approval level, above water in only three states, and only one has him at majority approval level.
It’s Biden’s worst showing since January, although his disapproval level has been steady at 55% for several weeks (via John Hinderaker at Power Line):
The demos remain relatively unchanged since early April in this weekly tracking poll. Biden has lost a couple of points with black and Hispanic voters, but still within the margin of error. He’s also lost ground with Democrats, declining gradually since the start of the Ukraine war gave Biden a slight rally effect among voters of his own party.
The real value in the Civiqs tracking is in its state-level numbers, however. In early April, four states gave Biden an edge in overall approval: Hawaii (54/39), Massachusetts (50/38), Vermont (54/35), and Maryland (47/42). Biden also had even splits in California and Rhode Island. He’s still got majority approval in Hawaii, but that’s it:
- Hawaii: 50/40
- Massachusetts: 45/42
- Vermont: 46/38
Even though those states show Biden above water, the margin has eroded significantly. He’s now at 41/48 in Rhode Island and underwater even in California, 42/46. What about the key states in the midterms?
- Arizona: 32/59, was 35/57
- Colorado: 36/52, was 40/51
- Connecticut: 38/50, was 42/48
- Delaware(!): 35/53, was 38/54
- Georgia: 31/58, was 33/57
- Minnesota: 39/52, was 41/50
- Ohio: 29/61, was 31/60
- Oregon: 41/47, was 41/48
- Nevada: 33/58, was 35/57
- Virginia: 34/55, was 37/53
- Washington state: 42/48, was 44/47
That’s a significant amount of slippage across the board just from early April, and it’s steeper if one tracks it from the beginning of the year. If the election were held today, Democrats would get wiped out. Imagine what this will look like on this trajectory by the time early voting begins in four months or so.
And the erosion will likely continue. Unlike Biden’s former boss Barack Obama, Biden’s favorability rating at Civiqs has also sharply declined as people apparently aren’t buying the avuncular Scranton Joe act any more:
He’s still seen favorably by black voters overwhelmingly (75/17) and barely by Hispanic voters (48/45), but that’s it. Majorities in every age demo see Biden unfavorably on a personal basis. So do college and non-college voters except for post-grads, who still rank him slightly unfavorably too (46/48). A plurality of women (44/49) see Biden unfavorably, a death knell for Democrats in the midterms and in 2024 if Biden runs again. And again, only five states give Biden a favorable ranking, one of which — New York — is only 47/46 on Biden personally.
Those do not present much hope for Democrats of a rebound in this presidency. This reflects the confidence-crisis cascade that Biden triggered with his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and which has accelerated ever since as his incompetence has been painfully clear in crisis after crisis. This is a pathway to a generational shellacking — and to a concerted primary challenge in 2024.