Sorry, ABC: Politico/Morning Consult poll shows majority support for Florida sex-ed limits

And it’s not even close, despite Politico’s carefully crafted lead:

American voters are sharply divided over two contentious bills Florida’s state Legislature recently passed that deal with the teaching of race and gender identity, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll of registered voters.

“Sharply divided,” in this case, means majority support for the supposed “Don’t Say Gay” bill that Ron DeSantis has endorsed. That’s no narrow window either, but instead a 51/35 support level for restricting discussions of sexual orientation and gender identity below the fourth-grade level. An even slightly higher percentage, 52/37, support limiting such discussions at and above that level to “age-appropriate discussions.”

That isn’t just a GOP phenomenon either:

In both instances, support was considerably higher among Republican registered voters, but there was also backing from independent voters. Seventy percent of GOP voters, for example, supported banning the teaching of sexual orientation and gender identity in lower grades compared to 51 percent of Democrats who opposed the legislation. The poll found that 46 percent of independent voters supported the ban compared to 35 percent who opposed it.

So what happened in that ABC-Ipsos poll this week? That one supposedly showed Americans in widespread opposition to the Florida legislation, but it smelled bad from the start. ABC and Ipsos acknowledged that they had oversampled LGBTQ respondents in a 622-person sample, a very strange outcome for a supposedly scientific poll of randomly surveyed Americans (not registered voters). As I suggested on Monday, this looks like a cooked sample that intended to deliver an editorial narrative rather than tell the truth:

Are we to believe that it’s a coincidence that ABC/Ipsos just so happened to oversample this community on a polling question that directly relates to them?

Especially given the smaller sample size for a national poll (622 adults, not registered voters), it would appear that the pollster focused on specific localities where one would normally find a greater-than-usual percentage of LGBTQ respondents. If the calls were made mostly in urban areas, and perhaps especially in urban areas known for a more robust LGBTQ culture, then it would not only explain the oversample but also the results from non-LGBTQ-identifying adult respondents.

In fact, it turns out that a Daily Wire-commissioned poll had a much better read on American public opinion about teaching sexual preferences and gender identity to little children. Unlike ABC/Ipsos, the Lucid poll used the actual language in Florida’s bill, and found that nearly two-thirds of respondents supported it:

  • More than 6 in 10 Americans (64%) support the Florida bill’s ban on classroom instructions on sexual orientation and gender identity in grades K-3, or at any level if it is not presented in a manner that is age or developmentally appropriate. Twenty-one percent said they oppose the bill.
  • The Florida measure is backed by 69% of Republicans, 62% of Democrats, and 57% of Independents. There were also no notable differences among whites (63%), blacks (66%), and Latinos (62%) or by age.
  • 68% of parents support the Florida bill’s classroom instruction regulations.

Let’s take a look at the internals for the Morning Consult poll. When it comes to banning those discussions below the fourth grade in sex education, the bill turns out to be pretty broadly popular:

  • Millennials: 49/37
  • Gen-X: 54/31
  • Post-grad degrees: 51/41 (!)
  • Income below $50K: 46/35
  • $50-100K: 54/33
  • >$100K: 53/38
  • Hispanic: 45/41
  • Black: 40/36
  • Urban: 45/36
  • Suburban: 50/37
  • Rural: 57/29

Outside of explicitly Democrat/progressive categories (and Gen-Z), there’s no significant opposition to this bill. It’s the opponents speaking from the political fringe that want teachers to ply gender gender theory and orientation issues into elementary-school sex ed, especially when it comes to kids under the age of 10.

So when do we get an explanation from ABC-Ipsos about their true methodology and the conditions under which they conducted the earlier poll?

By the way, Joe Biden’s approval rating in this MC poll is 41/56, with only 18% strongly approving and 42% strongly disapproving, for those keeping score. He’s at 33/61 among independents. So much for that State of the Union bounce that media outlets were hailing last week, eh?